Stray Observations: Cherryplanning versus cherrypicking, and how Dallas remains undefeated

3-0.

Weekend scorers: Tyler Seguin (2),Jamie Benn (1), Sam Steel (1), Wyatt Johnston (1)

I don’t know. I don’t go around looking for criticism for the sake of it, although I know it seems like it. It just feels like Dallas is winning on cruise control. In many ways that makes their 3-0 record even more impressive. A lot of good teams are having a funky start. Just look at who’s in the bottom of the standings in the West: Nashville, Colorado, and Edmonton.

Obviously, things will change. But for now, you’d be hard pressed to think of a weak link. The players with high expectations have delivered. Logan Stankoven is firmly at the top in the early race for the Calder, right alongside Lane Hutson (Montreal). He’s been everything that could be asked of him and then some. His point pace doesn’t even do his on-ice brilliance justice. His frantic mastery of both tape and space makes you wonder if he doesn’t have Hart level potential.

Then there are the players expectations they need to meet, or remain question marks, like Jake Oettinger and Mason Marchment. Oettinger doesn’t look like he’s simply playing for a contract. He looks like he’s playing for that elusive next level that’s fallen just short of in the past. As for Marchment, unlike previous seasons, he’s no longer just a fascinating passenger, but the Seguin line’s henchman driver. He’s been a rock on the puck, making plays without getting lost in the extracurriculars — although that’s happening too.

Even the fourth line is playing with assertiveness (mostly from Colin Blackwell, granted). A small sample size of undefeated games always reads like an illusion; not just because no one goes undefeated for long stretches, but because you can always point to one or two goals that feel like arbitrary rewards from the hockey gods. However, the Stars are one of the best teams in the league. Their opponents were not. It’s a calculus that won’t change any time soon. They have yet to trail in a game, and they’re the first NHL squad to tally multiple shutouts. They’ll be stopped eventually. But they won’t be slowing down. So yea. They’re good.

Your regularly-scheduled Stars Stack plea for help: Just kidding. Subscribe or don’t. But I do appreciate those who make it financially easier on me to manage my (literally) 16 different subscriptions. That says way more about the barrier to entry for hockey analysis than it does any passive aggressive attempt at getting you to upgrade to paid, but I promise now more than ever you will share in the benefit. The Stars Stack calendar is officially set for the month, with prospect analysis tomorrow (across the AHL and OHL), and Corey’s exclusive tracking data for Thursday. These recaps will include video as well. They won’t be taking over the Tales From The Clipped series, but the two will overlap. Nonetheless, that calendar will be the informal template from here on out. For game-to-game stuff, I’ll have a Gameday thread in the chat for paid subscribers, and Stray Observations in the Notes section that’ll be public to all.

Matt Dumba’s health

While it’s unknown how long Dumba will be out, expect some fairly extended time given how it looked. What sucks — beyond the injury itself — is that Dumba looked decent. Hardly perfect, but decent. The added benefit is that his presence put Miro Heiskanen on his strongside. Dumba is certainly no missing link for the strength of the team’s blueline, but he seemed to fit in, warts and all. Which leads to the second stray…

Nils Lundkvist

Speaking of, one thing Dumba’s presence helped accomplish is put Lundkvist on a competent pair. Before last night, Lundkvist was a +18 on shot attempt differential at even strength, by far a team best. In fact, the next closest is Miro Heiskanen at -2. Yes, “fancy” stats are wonky so early — although these stats are score and venue adjusted — but it still loosely represents a player who looks comfortable out there. He’s someone I was resigned to ignoring before the season began, not because I think he’s a lost cause, but because the future has always been so murky with the Swedish defender. He still doesn’t look like a reinvented player, but he’s been assertive, and poised: two things that will keep him in the lineup barring injury.

Ides of Marchment — Neomarchism — March Deco (Copyright, Twitter, 2024)

I’ll talk more about Marchment in Corey’s statcap but he’s been Dallas’ most noticeable forward through their first three games. Granted, I mean that in a negative way as well (his temper, penalties, etc), but broadly speaking, he’s been just plain dynamite. I don’t believe his skating has actively improved or anything, but maybe his lace bite is affective him less? The man my editor and mentor Mike Piellucci dubbed the ‘mystery box’ is becoming less of a mystery, although we’ve come close to unraveling his style before.

Marchment is the quintessential peculiar player; someone who is as much a collection of their talents as they are of their habits and personality. Forged by piss, pucks, and vinegar, you’d be hard-pressed to conjure up a more unpredictable player. However, his core being is a power forward with a teaspoon of Peter Forsberg. What that yields long term is anyone’s guess, but he’s suddenly fun to watch for all the right reasons.

Seguin and Benn, young again

Not really. Although Seguin will dispute the “again” part. Seguin’s another player with relatively low expectations. He’s a guy who gets to go ‘under the radar’ because that’s what happens to aging players. To his credit, he looks eager to take on that leader role, which Robert Tiffin spoke about at length in his wonderful Afterthoughts the other day. On-ice wise, it’s too early to make any serious proclamations. To me, he still looks like post-injury Seguin — just a healthier version.

Special teams

As mentioned, I’m doing my own tracking project for the power play this year. I haven’t started yet, but my initial impression is that Dallas’ entries were letting them down the most. There’s not much to actually unpack this early — Dallas may be 26th, but they’re actually above Toronto, Florida, and Carolina (three, obviously very good PP teams) — but for now, the personnel is there for a top 10 team on both sides of the special teams border.

Cherryplanning

This isn’t a unique observation, but I got some confused looks when I mentioned it on Twitter. Against Seattle, Tyler Seguin got sprung on a breakaway when Matt Duchene lobbed the puck out to center ice. Dallas does this: strategically blowing the zone. You can call it something more official-sounding if you like; the stretch breakout, angleshooting (a term in MtG for when players leverage non-board tactics for board advantages) or neutral zone marking. Or perhaps “cherrypurpose”.

It’s nothing new. It’s a tactic Pittsburgh leveraged against New York in the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals. The point here is not to cheat, but to catch others cheating…by, well, cheating. If opposing defenders over-commit, then why not? The Stars did this a lot versus Edmonton. Check out Marchment in this clip. Notice who the player is lobbing the puck out.

Or Jason Robertson.

Or Jamie Benn.

Jack Han wrote about how Edmonton was losing the neutral zone early on because of this play.

There’s a broader discussion about the nature of this tactic. After all, Dallas lost that series. And their offense more than anything was the main reason. I don’t think the two are related. It’s an available tactic within the system, but it is not the system itself. To the extent that the Stars have any offensive flaws, I would argue it’s that they don’t have enough ways to naturally get past defenders. They’re still a relatively slow team, and weak on the rush.

However, they excel in different areas. And they’re one of the best finishing teams in hockey, period.

Islanders/Kraken perspective

I’m not sure either one of these teams is serious as a potential wild card team. Both teams are in the same boat as groups who wasted time splitting hairs, parting the money waters for players like Chandler Stephenson and Bo Horvat. There’s no surer sign of a mediocre club than paying premium for non-premium players.