Stray Observations (Game 2): Jake Oettinger bails out Dallas in 5-4 shootout win over Colorado

It was all Oettinger.

I still have no idea what to make of Game 1. It was good, bad, and ugly rolled into one night; and really, just ten minutes. That means you can make of it whatever you will. If you feared Dallas might not be as good as they were last season, it gave you a case. If you were hopeful that they could be even better, it gave you a case. If you think these Stars will be a generic playoff lock, you got a case. Even with ten games in the books, we still won’t know. But ideally, Game 2 would unravel layers to at least one of the above.

I suppose you can keep waiting. Or dooming. Or cheering.

There is a short version of tonight’s game: Dallas won two games on the road versus the best opponents in the Central. That’s a big deal for a team that has and will continue to struggle adjusting to the new way of things. It has long term implications for eventual playoff matchups, and it’s nice to just walk a little taller in the first place.

The long version is that tonight was an awful performance. Dallas was outshot 63-30 at even-strength. High danger chances were a lot closer, but still in the Avalanche favor 13-8. Expected goals in all situations was 4.3 to 2.4 in favor of Colorado. Dallas’ breakouts were ugly as all hell, the forward support looked absent in the last two periods, and the offense they generated seemed to come from unforced errors on the side of the opponent. It’s great to see them capitalize on chances that fall into their lap. It’s just not a sustainable strategy.

This really was all Colorado.

Good thing for Dallas, all they needed was netminding. Which they had. Maybe one of the best goalie performances I’ve seen in years. By anyone.

Don’t worry, though. There won’t be much doomscrolling in the strays. This is only game two, and there is no real analysis to be had after two games. Nonetheless, emotions can be had, and emotions can tell truths too. Saturday night felt dreadful from an execution standpoint, but thankfully there are 80 more games to show us who the real Stars are.

Harley + Lundkvist = Life

No, I’m not calling Lundkvist a top four defender after just two games. But so far that’s two games in which we saw the second pair put their own stamp on a game. Again, going back to our preview, this pair rated extremely well in both sides of the puck. They were statistically ruthless in terms of shooting and passing. However, blueline scoring is always tricky to evaluate as it’s simply less prevalent. Two point-per game defenders may not be sustainable, but their offense and willingness to attack; the ability to capitalize on odd-man rushes — is. They weren’t perfect, of course. But what a difference not having an active weakness in the top four makes.

Power Shell

One thing that looks like it’ll remain strong and likely stay strong is Dallas’ penalty kill. Here’s where I think that the stronger inclusion of Miro Heiskanen will pay dividends. It’s been the Esa Lindell show for a long time, but the Stars have the defenders to further tighten the PK. Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, Lian Bichsel — these are all defenders with good PK profiles for different reasons. Sure, someone like Harley has minutes you want to skew on the offensive side of things, but elite players want shifts. They don’t care what kind.

Robertson: back to formula

Of all the players needing to make a statement, no player tops any list more than Robertson. Not only is he the topic of an obnoxious conversation about what Dallas “must do” with a player who’s an RFA, but the perception of him even amongst Stars fans has never been more discerning. Everyone likes him. But they’re still kind of not sure what he is at his peak, perhaps wondering if we saw a perfect storm a few seasons ago. I suppose we can wonder no more. Even beyond his point-per-game pace, he looks fully healed. He’ll never look or be fast, but he chugs along with the purpose and tenacity of a Selke forward; something that has often been in tension between the analytics and the ‘eye test.’ We’ll certainly see how long it lasts, but his impact from shift to shift hardly projects to slow down.

Phenomenotter

Okay so maybe Robertson has some competition. Jake Oettinger has been the topic of — whatever. You get it. Oettinger’s performance versus Winnipeg was somewhat mixed, but on a night where the team defense failed him from what felt like shift after shift, Oettinger did the Calgary brickwall thing. Multiple robberies on Martin Necas, who seemed to have a wide open net way too often, and excellent positioning overall were the only moves on the menu. Easily one of his best game in years (which says a lot about the play in front of him given that he still “allowed” four goals).

Meandering Strays

• Still trying to figure out the “story” on Heiskanen. I didn’t realize he played so many minutes versus Winnipeg (27), which likely explains a lot. First game of the year, new system, new partner, cobwebs to shed, perhaps even an injury still taking time to fully heal — plenty of rational explanations. He’s always been a subtle player to begin with.

• Harley just looks sublime. Not only is he activating with proper designs and skill, but he hasn’t made many mistakes (save for getting beat by a really great hustle play by Victor Olofsson), and is playing both sides of special teams with the same acumen. Last season was no flash in the pan. He’s for real, and he’ll get paid like a real one.

• The power play still feels like a work-in-progress. No, I haven’t already starting writing the Harley To the Top Unit article yet (although I may have a blank draft). The new schemes and combos deserve time to breathe. They’ve had looks, and they seem to do well on rotations, but a well-oiled machine it is not. At least not right now.

• Mikko Rantanen might be a player, folks.

• Do Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin miss Mason Marchment?

• I haven’t been fond of the how the models rate Colorado, but damn if they didn’t look sharp. Like Toronto, they’ll be hard to beat just on sheer principle. Their top level players can genuinely take over a game, and Necas looks like he might be developing into one. Don’t be surprised if Dallas and Colorado are the only ones vying for the top spot in the Central when the dust has settled.