Sober reflections on Pete DeBoer, Jake Oettinger, and separating the fact from the fiction

Let's unpack an unfortunate end to the season.

When I went on The Hockey PDOcast with Dimitri Filipovic, I didn’t really address the drama between Pete DeBoer and Jake Oettinger. Well, I kind of did. But I also didn’t. It’s something I regret, just a little. I am glad, though, that I’ve had more time to digest the situation. There’s a lot to unpack, not to mention, a lot that unfolded in the immediate aftermath.

Before digging into this one, the hardest pill to swallow — for me — is how little any of this has to do with why Dallas lost. Oettinger got pulled in Game 5. Not Game 7. The Stars were arguably lucky to avoid a sweep with their only win being owed to a miracle power play outburst. It’s why I don’t have time for the “Dallas is soft” angle that has sadly been peddled. What that should leave us with is an autopsy report on all the hockey reasons for why the Stars lost. Instead we have…all of whatever this is and ends up being.

Having watched the exit interviews, I’m gonna largely skip over it because it’s not as critical to my personal analysis as I thought it might. Everyone said all the right things. DeBoer kind of doubled down on his initial comments, just with a softer tone. Oettinger was composed enough to make jokes about it and win everyone over it. They appear to be moving on, but let’s rewind to that night, and what that night said about the Stars as a playoff contender. Because that’s the real crux of it all.

I’m gonna divide this into a few different sections: a quick recap of the two goals, the decision itself and DeBoer’s comments, the case for pulling Oettinger, the case against, and the data. Yes, believe it or not, there is an easy way to to discuss blame scientifically instead of leaving it to halfcocked notions of toughness.

Quick recap

Since it was two goals that prompted this firestorm, let’s talk about the two goals. First, goal #1.

I find video analysis fascinating. So many fans consider it “more objective” than a stats card, and yet we’re just as likely to see different things. Did Wyatt Johnston take a bad angle on Leon Draisaitl on the halfwall or did he take the angle that the penalty kill has largely been taught to take? Or was it just a strong pivot from one of the game’s best puck protectors, connecting with the best hockey player in the world, himself connecting with the oldest expert in net-front presence?

There’s a lot going on here, and I don’t want to get lost into the weeds of it. Esa Lindell (who tracks too slow on the play) and Cody Ceci (who doesn’t track at all; he just chases, which was his MO all postseason) are players you can point at too as well. Either way, most fans don’t blame Oettinger for this one. There’s no reason for Corey Perry to be that wide open, but he is, and it’s 1-0 Oilers.

As for goal two, it’s a bad line change that Jake Walman takes full advantage of, and really — a bad goal as well. I’m not good at dissecting shooting mechanics, but Janmark doesn’t appear to do anything special. He makes one shift from backhand to forehand, and sends it five-hole. Janmark. If that’s Connor McDavid instead, we never even have this discussion.

So we have one goal Oettinger could have had, and one goal Oettinger should have had. Nothing great. But hardly catastrophic.

The comments

I’m honestly not that interested in writing about this too in-depth. Did DeBoer throw Oettinger under the bus? Absolutely. Did he stick the bus in reverse to make sure? Kind of.

Here’s all he needed to say.

“We believe in Jake, obviously. But at the end of the day, I had to find a way to spark our team. Pulling your goalie is the quickest way to snap your team out of it. Obviously, this wasn’t an Oettinger decision. It was a Stars decision. But we weren’t ready and that’s on me, not Jake.”

Outside of missing a few more “at the end of the day” and “obviously”, this is straight out of the PR manual: give Oettinger his due, take responsibility for your actions, and leave no red meat for those pesky writers. In some ways, I appreciate that DeBoer’s comments were not generic. Not only did he have a reason, it sounds like he had plenty, right or wrong. However, none of this is as interesting as whether or not what the decision itself was the right one.

The case for

If this had been a regular season game, this would have been a non-issue. Two goals on two shots is pretty much exactly when you hit the killswitch. It’s a bigger deal because a) it was an elimination game and b) how DeBoer went about it.

But let’s be real: netminders are creatures of mental habit. How many goalies do you ever see give up two goals before fans sit down from the anthems and then magically turn into Hasek immediately after? Again, I don’t believe both goals were on Oettinger. But as hard as it is for me to believe that Oettinger just isn’t good enough versus Edmonton on his own (DeBoer’s super strange implication, basically), it’s even harder for me to believe that Oettinger would have gotten better.

This is not an assessment of Oettinger’s status, or skill level. Goalies are allowed bad games. Sergei Bobrovsky has had bad games (see Game 3 versus the Lightning). Freddie Anderson had bad games. Despite goalies being thought of as voodoo, they’re actually pretty consistent from game to game: either they’re insane, really good, good, bad, really bad, or insanely bad. They’re only ever one of these from game to game. While we can certainly question DeBoer’s comments, and the logic, does anyone question the validity to it, in principle? At worst, this was the right decision for the wrong reasons.

There’s another piece here, and it’s the burden of expectation. This is largely tangential to the discussion at large, but it’s something I see people take for granted. Who is Oettinger? The way people talk about him, you would think he belongs in the Connor Hellebuyck¹ and Igor Shesterkin category. Is he? I don’t personally think so. It’s why I was afraid he’d get the Jeremy Swayman contract despite rating below Swayman when you really dig into his numbers. Having had this discussion with self-proclaimed carnival barker himself, Ralph Strangis, I’ll just leave that one here. The long and short of it is that I think it’s fair to adjust your expectations of Oettinger. Statistically, he’s good but not elite.

The Stars have their 66 Million Dollar Man...

The case against

Simple: Casey DeSmith. There was nothing encouraging about the goal he let in. If he just grabs the puck, there’s no scrum, and no goal. Instead he plays hot potato with it, and the rest is history. Put this one into the Should Have Had category.

Like with Oettinger, this isn’t entirely on him, however. Alex Petrovic’s clearing attempt is just awful, really (again, stressing the importance of having players who can handle and move the puck below the top pair). Lian Bichsel gets caught scrambling. And I’m not sure who Jamie Benn is trying to cover on this sequence. Regardless, this should have been the immediate flag to DeBoer that a) if he was looking for a spark, he didn’t get it and b) DeSmith wasn’t the answer. Beyond that, DeSmith has five games of playoff experience in eight years. Sure he was really good during the regular season, but choosing DeSmith as your champion in the team’s final hour feels like a stretch. The timing makes it look worse than it is, but isn’t it still…worse?

While less strong as an argument, there’s also the general notion of dancing with what who you brought. Oettinger was good enough up until Game 5. If he’s your number one, why not stick with him? Ride or die.

With all that out the way, let’s cut to the chase.

The reality

Garret Hohl has a really fun, and easy-to-understand model (well, not for me) that’s more of a rubric than a fancy stat. The idea is deceptively simple: when breaking down team performance, who gets the credit, and who gets the blame? Did everyone come together for an above average performance (team win)? Did the goalie steal one (goalie steal)? Did the team outscore their problems (skater steal)? Or was everything bad (team loss)? Or…is there a valid blame game to be played on the goalie (goalie loss) versus the skaters (skater loss)? You get the idea, and if not, I’ve explained the math in this footnote².

To me, this is the essence of the entire debate. Who is responsible? Who deserves to have fingers pointed at them? You might be surprised. (Assuming I’ve done this right.)

It’s probably best just to rattle off a generic listicle of takeaways so here they are:

• Dallas mostly won as a team in these playoffs

• Dallas also mostly lost as a team

• Dallas won two off the strength of Oettinger’s performance

• Dallas never won off the strength of their skaters’ performance

• In 16 percent of Dallas’ losses, Oettinger’s performance should have been good enough for a win but wasn’t

• Asterisk: you could technically give Oettinger a goalie loss for Game 5 versus Edmonton

I’m more critical of Oettinger than most because I think — stay with me on this one — he’s overrated by Dallas’ fanbase; and I say that as a mathematical generalization (referring here to various underlying numbers and fancy stats) rather than an attempt to be combative with the fans themselves. I also don’t understand people who mock Stuart Skinner when he’s been moderately above average his career³. I also say that with the asterisk of Oettinger being young. This year felt like a critical step forward in his development towards being the player fans and the organization think he is. He could very well get there. He’s certainly got the pedigree. Nonetheless, he needs more development, which is where I agree with DeBoer.

But…the data also makes it abundantly clear that the DeBoer/Oettinger drama is just window dressing for the actual reality: the team more than Oettinger couldn’t steal games. Relying too much on special teams, and individual magic, Game 5 was more about calling into question whether or not Jim Nill constructed a good enough roster to win a Cup. The blueline certainly wasn’t. Why couldn’t the skaters steal at least one? 18 games is not exactly a small sample size. Whatever your opinions are of this whole ordeal, don’t be distracted by the hockey reasons the Stars were eliminated.

The final aspect is, I suppose, whether or not DeBoer is the coach to lead this team to a potential Cup. I see fans that “want blood” and I ask: who do you have in mind? John Tortorella? Jay Woodcroft? Pascal Vincent⁴? Gerard Gallant? Dave Hakstol? Peter Laviolette? David Carle should top your list, but he just signed an extension with the University of Denver, although his contract allows him to leave. I’ll talk more about this when we do our offseason report cards, but three WC Finals appearances is a heck of an argument. I’m not saying DeBoer can win Dallas a Cup, but it’s obviously not a decision that can or should be made lightly.

Programming note (plus a “special” announcement)

As always, major thanks to everyone who subscribes, paid or otherwise. This entire adventure has opened my eyes to a possibility that never entered my cobwebbed brain: doing this full time. I’m going through a dramatic change in my personal life. I’m coming home, finally (from San Antonio to Fort Worth). But it’s come at a cost. Without boring you with details, I’ll just say that paid subscribers are putting food on the table. That’s huge. It’s not just liberating, but the support has also inspired me.

So tomorrow I’ll be starting a separate Substack, where I write about the NHL at large, starting with an Into The Weeds preview (exact same format) of the 2025 Stanley Cup Finals between Florida and Edmonton.

I watch and read about too much hockey to let it go to waste. ‘Sticks And Salvos’ (sorry about the name) will be free, FYI. I don’t even have payments turned on, for what it’s worth. Nonetheless, I know I can do this. So I will.

As for this place, nothing is changing. This is still my one true love, and always will be. I’m relieved I can focus on hockey again (my favorite part of…hockey). Same schedule as last summer: autopsy reports, report cards, draft stuff (yes, Dallas can still find potential NHL players in this 2025 draft), Texas Stars coverage (currently down 0-2 in the series, but by razor thin margins), and more.

As always, you’re invited to join the Discord channel that is now 400 strong.

1. Regular season Hellebuyck obviously.

2. The actual math is a combination of Rob Vollman’s tried but true concept of a quality start by a goalie (when their save percentage is above league average, or an .885 save percentage on 20 shots or less, since that would only mean two goals), and on the skater side — whether the game’s goal differential was above their expected goal differential, not counting empty net goals.

3. And technically rates higher than Oettinger when looking at the difference between his observed, and expected save percentage since 2020.

4. At least we would get to see Wyatt Johnston playing left wing, I guess?