David- thank you for this analysis. It is so easy and in some ways appealing to simply pick a narrative and jump on “Team Otter” or “Team DeBoer” (if one exists!) and miss the “real hockey story”.
We all knew coming into the season the blue line wasn’t good enough. The fact that Dallas ended up playing Petrovic so many minutes in the playoffs AGAIN this year demonstrates the lack of depth and quality- and I thought he played better than expected!
I also thought the skaters looked tired and out of ideas most of the series. Granted, everyone will look slow against the top line of Edmonton. No shame in that. But Dallas was consistently unable to control play in the o zone and cycle- it was panic in the d zone, fling it out and dump it into the o zone and chase and hope for the best. And (revisiting the “soft” narrative) it was really disappointing not to see a more consistent net front presence.
I really appreciate your analysis of Otter and especially of the fans’ perception of him. He’s a good goalie. He’s not a great goalie…yet. But in NHL goalie terms he’s still a baby! I feel (no data- just feelz) that NHL goalies really don’t hit their prime until around 28 or so and then can stay prime for 5-6 years. Give or take a year either way.
I think the next year or two will be defining for Otter. How does he deal with PDB and being called out? He’s been known here as “Big Game Jake” and “Phenomenotter”. Now he’s been pulled in a critical situation. Does this fuel his fire? Does it cause him to reflect on what he can do better and then do it? Or does it get in his head and lead to him plateauing and ultimately forcing a showdown or trade?
Lots of questions and I really look forward to your off season analysis! Welcome back to North Texas!
Hey - thanks for the repost - I did the same. This wasn’t Tretiak at Lake Placid was it…. :) I remain concerned that Oettinger can maintain a playoff level for four rounds against top competition.
Different xG models will give different results, but they're consistent on this point: Oettinger showed up to play more than the skaters did. Evolving-Hockey's xG model is even kinder to Oettinger than NST's. Breaking the game results the same way using their model the results are:
-4 Team Wins
-4 Goalie Steals
-1 Skater Steal
-2 Team Losses
-1 Goalie Loss
-6 Skater Losses
HockeyViz favors the skaters a bit more, giving credit as:
-5 Team Wins
-2 Goalie Steals
-2 Skater Steals
-3 Team Losses
-2 Goalie Losses
-4 Skater Losses
Having the skaters play at most 50% quality games is unacceptable for such a "deep" team. Requiring your goalie to pitch a shutout in 7 of 18 games to have a chance is pathetic (though an occasional shutout would be nice!). Stars management needs to be asking some serious questions.
After calming down a bit, I would be surprised if DeBoer is not behind the bench for game one next season. Between making the conference final three seasons in a row and Nill never having fired a coach for performance reasons, I just don't see a coaching change being in the cards. He should have had more composure though. His post-game comments were incredibly immature.
Thanks David for all you do... You get way into those numbers, not always the way I like to look at the game, to provide real context. I look forward to your off season analysis
I like your Diplomatic Style Explanation that IMO Head Coach Pete DeBoer should have used 🤩 . I’m neither on team DeBoer or Team Otter . We all have been guilty of saying something that we have later regretted . Otter ( unlike Patrick Roy’s famous tirade ) seems to have handled it in a very mature manner ……. Good for Him 👍
I hope that Behind the Scenes and in private that both of them have hashed this out ( which Coach DeBoer should have done in the first place )
Kind of funny how the Stars always spotted other teams the first goal in these playoffs but giving up the 2nd results in this. The team has always seemed to play better in front of Jake, be that from his puck handling or just luck. I can live with the move by PDB, but if this is the start of him pointing fingers then it’s the start of him updating his resume.
You took a very leveled approach that I appreciate. I just want to go out and say that the second goal on Otter is also one that I think is on the team. Janmark coming in at full speed on a breakaway after getting the puck at the top of the circles is a very difficult situation to be in. He is crossing over to the left and makes that move to his forehand which Jake has to respect. Thus, Jake has to open up the five-hole to slide across and Janmark slips it right through. While it was Janmark, I think any elite goal-scorer makes the same play there.
Probably just me but I think Otter has back tracked a little over the last 2 years. I think the 22/23 Otter was better than 23/24 or 24/25. In 23/24 he let in way to many soft goals mostly by his positioning. This year there were times that it looked like he forgot he had a stick in his hand. There were many times that the opponents made a pass that went thru the blue paint that Otter could have stopped yet he made no move to block the pass. I really believe it’s time for Dallas to make a goalie coach change. I know if I can see his shortcomings a coach should be making improvements in those things. I still say if Dumba and Lyubushkin are on the team next year we will be lucky to get as far as we did this year.
If any of you are interested …… Prior to the Stars/ Panthers Series in Finland last Fall PDB and Paul Maurice sat down for a coffee and Hockey/ Life Talk . You can see it on YOU Tube
As this season is finished, here are some personal observations:
- How the GM of the year though that a combination of Dumba/Lyubushkin/Ceci would replace Tanev makes me wonder if the GM knows anything about modern defense. If you add Smith, none of those signings played a significant role, if any, in the Stars PO run
- A coach that panics in the most important game of the year is an issue in my book. That's the opposite of what you need behind the bench in these crucial and high stress situations.
- Carolina went as far as the Stars in these PO, and they have "all" of our high end picks on top of Stankoven. On the other end, we have no picks and no Cap space.
If I was Nill (LOL probably a good thing), I would not sign Benn/Duchene/Granlund, and I would ask Seguin if he wants to waive his NMC with the list of teams he would want to go.
I would also move Dumba and Lyubushkin for pucks.
It's time to change the leadership group of the team, as well as it's DNA.
And with all that money, why not grab Marner with a 12 * 7 contract.
I thought the “system” comments by PDB were revealing. He was questioning his basic offensive approach, (out loud!) and his forwards ability both to make it work AND inability to adapt to changing that approach due to improving opponents defenses as they climbed the series ladder.
He’s a very interesting guy, and clearly is already in self analysis mode considering how he too can improve or change.
I believe that IF the Edm nut can be cracked, by this Stars team, he’ll figure it out.
David- thank you for this analysis. It is so easy and in some ways appealing to simply pick a narrative and jump on “Team Otter” or “Team DeBoer” (if one exists!) and miss the “real hockey story”.
We all knew coming into the season the blue line wasn’t good enough. The fact that Dallas ended up playing Petrovic so many minutes in the playoffs AGAIN this year demonstrates the lack of depth and quality- and I thought he played better than expected!
I also thought the skaters looked tired and out of ideas most of the series. Granted, everyone will look slow against the top line of Edmonton. No shame in that. But Dallas was consistently unable to control play in the o zone and cycle- it was panic in the d zone, fling it out and dump it into the o zone and chase and hope for the best. And (revisiting the “soft” narrative) it was really disappointing not to see a more consistent net front presence.
I really appreciate your analysis of Otter and especially of the fans’ perception of him. He’s a good goalie. He’s not a great goalie…yet. But in NHL goalie terms he’s still a baby! I feel (no data- just feelz) that NHL goalies really don’t hit their prime until around 28 or so and then can stay prime for 5-6 years. Give or take a year either way.
I think the next year or two will be defining for Otter. How does he deal with PDB and being called out? He’s been known here as “Big Game Jake” and “Phenomenotter”. Now he’s been pulled in a critical situation. Does this fuel his fire? Does it cause him to reflect on what he can do better and then do it? Or does it get in his head and lead to him plateauing and ultimately forcing a showdown or trade?
Lots of questions and I really look forward to your off season analysis! Welcome back to North Texas!
Hey - thanks for the repost - I did the same. This wasn’t Tretiak at Lake Placid was it…. :) I remain concerned that Oettinger can maintain a playoff level for four rounds against top competition.
Different xG models will give different results, but they're consistent on this point: Oettinger showed up to play more than the skaters did. Evolving-Hockey's xG model is even kinder to Oettinger than NST's. Breaking the game results the same way using their model the results are:
-4 Team Wins
-4 Goalie Steals
-1 Skater Steal
-2 Team Losses
-1 Goalie Loss
-6 Skater Losses
HockeyViz favors the skaters a bit more, giving credit as:
-5 Team Wins
-2 Goalie Steals
-2 Skater Steals
-3 Team Losses
-2 Goalie Losses
-4 Skater Losses
Having the skaters play at most 50% quality games is unacceptable for such a "deep" team. Requiring your goalie to pitch a shutout in 7 of 18 games to have a chance is pathetic (though an occasional shutout would be nice!). Stars management needs to be asking some serious questions.
After calming down a bit, I would be surprised if DeBoer is not behind the bench for game one next season. Between making the conference final three seasons in a row and Nill never having fired a coach for performance reasons, I just don't see a coaching change being in the cards. He should have had more composure though. His post-game comments were incredibly immature.
Thanks David for all you do... You get way into those numbers, not always the way I like to look at the game, to provide real context. I look forward to your off season analysis
I like your Diplomatic Style Explanation that IMO Head Coach Pete DeBoer should have used 🤩 . I’m neither on team DeBoer or Team Otter . We all have been guilty of saying something that we have later regretted . Otter ( unlike Patrick Roy’s famous tirade ) seems to have handled it in a very mature manner ……. Good for Him 👍
I hope that Behind the Scenes and in private that both of them have hashed this out ( which Coach DeBoer should have done in the first place )
I'm in the dance with who brung ya camp. One bad goal shouldn't get you pulled, especially in an elimination game. Otter can't score the goals
Kind of funny how the Stars always spotted other teams the first goal in these playoffs but giving up the 2nd results in this. The team has always seemed to play better in front of Jake, be that from his puck handling or just luck. I can live with the move by PDB, but if this is the start of him pointing fingers then it’s the start of him updating his resume.
You took a very leveled approach that I appreciate. I just want to go out and say that the second goal on Otter is also one that I think is on the team. Janmark coming in at full speed on a breakaway after getting the puck at the top of the circles is a very difficult situation to be in. He is crossing over to the left and makes that move to his forehand which Jake has to respect. Thus, Jake has to open up the five-hole to slide across and Janmark slips it right through. While it was Janmark, I think any elite goal-scorer makes the same play there.
Probably just me but I think Otter has back tracked a little over the last 2 years. I think the 22/23 Otter was better than 23/24 or 24/25. In 23/24 he let in way to many soft goals mostly by his positioning. This year there were times that it looked like he forgot he had a stick in his hand. There were many times that the opponents made a pass that went thru the blue paint that Otter could have stopped yet he made no move to block the pass. I really believe it’s time for Dallas to make a goalie coach change. I know if I can see his shortcomings a coach should be making improvements in those things. I still say if Dumba and Lyubushkin are on the team next year we will be lucky to get as far as we did this year.
If any of you are interested …… Prior to the Stars/ Panthers Series in Finland last Fall PDB and Paul Maurice sat down for a coffee and Hockey/ Life Talk . You can see it on YOU Tube
Great write-up as usual.
As this season is finished, here are some personal observations:
- How the GM of the year though that a combination of Dumba/Lyubushkin/Ceci would replace Tanev makes me wonder if the GM knows anything about modern defense. If you add Smith, none of those signings played a significant role, if any, in the Stars PO run
- A coach that panics in the most important game of the year is an issue in my book. That's the opposite of what you need behind the bench in these crucial and high stress situations.
- Carolina went as far as the Stars in these PO, and they have "all" of our high end picks on top of Stankoven. On the other end, we have no picks and no Cap space.
If I was Nill (LOL probably a good thing), I would not sign Benn/Duchene/Granlund, and I would ask Seguin if he wants to waive his NMC with the list of teams he would want to go.
I would also move Dumba and Lyubushkin for pucks.
It's time to change the leadership group of the team, as well as it's DNA.
And with all that money, why not grab Marner with a 12 * 7 contract.
I thought the “system” comments by PDB were revealing. He was questioning his basic offensive approach, (out loud!) and his forwards ability both to make it work AND inability to adapt to changing that approach due to improving opponents defenses as they climbed the series ladder.
He’s a very interesting guy, and clearly is already in self analysis mode considering how he too can improve or change.
I believe that IF the Edm nut can be cracked, by this Stars team, he’ll figure it out.