The Objective Retrospective (Regular Season): How the 2025 Dallas Stars were made

And where they're headed.

The Dallas Stars are going into the postseason, but instead of looking ahead, as I will tomorrow (paid), I figured it might be fun — not to mention, more positive — to look to the past.

Whatever you think of this 2025 Stars, it has been carefully crafted: so much so that until Miro Heiskanen’s injury, this team was a Cup favorite by fans and nonfans alike. But success and failure exist on a spectrum. Since Pete DeBoer took over, each squad in these past three seasons has been a top 10 team in points percentage, only once dropping below 50 wins. Dallas is a success by any measure that doesn’t involve a Cup. A team defined by elite depth, a quality collective in net, and a top heavy blueline, nothing much has changed when they’re healthy.

While the focus is on round one — and again, we’ll get there tomorrow — I think it’s worth taking a step back. Wherever Dallas ends up, whether ousted in round one, round two, or hoisting the Cup itself, 2025 still feels like a significant year for many different reasons. Young players reaching new heights, blockbuster trades, extreme highs (cough, that fleeting top unit), and extreme lows (a single win in the entire month of April). Whatever the result, the expectation has never been higher. This year, for better or worse, feels like the culmination of a life’s work. That Jim Nill did something that wasn’t in his playbook tells you a lot about how Nill views this year, and this roster. When healthy, it’s easily one of most formidable rosters we’ve seen in years.

So what does that tell us about Dallas’ fortunes, beginning this Saturday? I don’t know. But 2025 won’t just affect the Stars this year, but long after.

Dallas at the draft

If you’re a dreamer, then you’re excited about this year and beyond. Why? Because the 2017 draft is becoming dangerously close to being rivaled by the 2021 draft, for giving the Stars a player they could turn into Mikko Rantanen (thanks Logan Stankoven; you’re always in our hearts), and Wyatt Johnston. Johnston’s ascent is nothing short of groundbreaking. Not only is he turning into one of the game’s premier goal scorers, but he’s doing it with the kind of two-way play that has recently defined a player like Auston Matthews. I discussed this more in-depth earlier this month.

For Dallas to be able to boast a Matthews-like presence bodes well for the team, not only for a potential deep run, but for the life of his contract, which turned into a clean $8.4 million AAV until 2030. Arguably doing it on an island, don’t be surprised if better linemates turns him into a 100-point center.

Thomas Harley belongs in this discussion as well, and arguably on a tier equal to Johnston. Only a couple of years before Johnston, his impact is nonetheless just as important. Harley might end up being the Makar to Heiskanen’s Devin Toews — obviously with their respective impacts reversed. Harley is that good. 27 points in 30 games since Heiskanen’s injury, that’s nearly a point-per-game pace. That he has another gear going into next season can’t be understated. The Stars, though obviously lacking in quality depth, can now boast two number one defenders.

I was having a discussion with friends of the Stars Discord. I came away with the impression that Stars fans appreciate Lian Bichsel, and love elements of his game, but some don’t seem truly convinced that an impact player is lurking beneath — at least not the kind of player that favorably stacks up to the Johnstons and the Harleys.

I disagree. I see Bichsel as the victim of perceptual blindness. They see the occasional turnovers and the misses in weakside coverage (which are there, to be sure). They see him on the ice for goals against, and the connections converge to create an impression of a solid, but developing young depth defender. However, what makes an impactful defender is the ripple effect their defense has across all three zones. Being able to control territory means being able to turn defense into offense, and vice versa — making offensive plays that don’t turn quickly into counterattacks with weak shots or poor offensive decision-making. He’s doing the little things that veterans often get credit for but don’t always actively achieve.

Data courtesy of Corey Sznajder.

Dallas’ youth movement is no joke, and it’s not just about the elite players. I credit players like Mavrik Bourque and Oskar Bäck, who appear primed to become more than role players, but impactful role players. Bourque in particular has the ceiling to play up the lineup, and given the Rantanen contract, they’re gonna need that kind of contribution.

While there’s not much coming up, players like Aram Minnetian, Trey Taylor, Tristan Bertucci, and Emil Hemming (a point per game player for the Colts in the OHL playoffs right now¹) all have a little bit of that Dallas Draft sprinkle dust that has allowed them to be so successful in finding mature players who find themselves capable of transitioning to a pro pace.

As someone following all of these players all year, I can tell you with amateur confidence that we haven’t seen the last of Dallas’ draft picks make the jump. Just saying.

Coaching

You can read my reaction to the hiring of Pete DeBoer here. My assessment hasn’t changed: DeBoer is a good coach for teams looking to win now. Back-to-back Western Conference Finals with a squad that beforehand nobody really tagged as a Cup favorite — I certainly didn’t. Blinded by Rick Bowness giving Radek Faksa and Michael Raffl top six minutes, nothing about that 2022 team felt like a serious threat. That team was one win away from stealing that series against Calgary — not earning it. You can’t say that about DeBoer’s teams, who have gone into almost every playoff matchup a favorite. That has to count for something.

I’m not comfortable talking about the future of this staff because a) DeBoer still has one more year and b) the playoffs will dictate the discourse. While DeBoer deserves high marks in the broad strokes, he’s still chasing a Cup himself. And there are still unanswered questions that the playoffs will prompt. Can he adapt? Will we still be talking about the power play when all is said and done? Is there anything else in store for the line combos and defense duos? Will he find the right tactical adjustment versus Colorado, potentially Winnipeg, and beyond?

Win a Cup, of course, and nothing else matters.

The 2024 Offseason

You can read my response here. Although the title kind of acts as the TL;DR version. Not that you don’t already have strong opinions.

And you can read my more measured take at D magazine.

If there’s a wrong left turn in the creation of this 2025 roster, it started in the offseason. To be sure, there was some good. Casey DeSmith, and bringing back Matt Duchene were home runs. Bringing back Nils Lundkvist, against all odds, also turned into a home run (well, more of a double). However, the blueline signings were exactly as predicted: a massive miss.

I don’t want to dwell too much on the offseason because we all get it. Nobody liked it then, and nobody likes it now. Still, it’s worth wondering whether our opinions would have changed if everyone had more or less stayed healthy; or at minimum, avoided season-ending injuries. While Nill’s issue here with signing so many depth defenders was the term, I’m sure most fans would have lived with a top six of Harley-Heiskanen, Lindell-Lundkvist, and Bichsel-Dumba/Lyubushkin going into round one.

I’m by no means trying to rationalize this or engage in apologetics. But one of Nill’s more underrated moves was making sure there was room for Bichsel to grab a spot. The paper transactions and cap gymnastics might seem irrelevant or just the necessary diligence, but that’s still work. And Nill worked to make sure Bichsel became a part of the top six and not merely a young player who got a seat at the table when it was merely convenient to do so.

The hits in the offseason fueled Dallas’ success more than the misses dragged them down had everyone been healthy. It was by no means a great series of moves, but injuries plunged the weaknesses into the spotlight in ways that were — at least somewhat — unforeseeable.

Goaltending

Dallas is a long way from the days of Kari Lehtonen (post concussion), and Anders Lindback. For the first time in a long time, going back to the days under Rick Bowness, Dallas can count on consistent goaltending. Yes, last year was an aberration for Jake Oettinger, but this is not about Oettinger bouncing back and more how the Stars have brought long term stability to a position that is rarely, if ever stable. This year, Oettinger and Casey DeSmith joined forces to create one of the strongest tandems in the league. Their true save percentages are a little murkier as a group, but this is not the kind of netminding that is losing them games.

Injuries

It’s unfortunate, but it happens. For several years, Dallas boasted the kind of health that teams would kill for. The pendulum was always due for a swing in the other direction, but this year was madness. Below is a broad look at the per-game cap charge of man games lost.

Data and visual courtesy of NHL Injury Viz.

This is not a problem that teams can avoid. They either happen or they don’t. Unfortunately, they happened a lot this season. And they’re still happening.

There’s a layer to the discourse that goes something along the lines of “injuries are no excuse.” I think this is broadly true. One major injury to a team’s blueline, for example, shouldn’t sink the entire ship. But not all injuries are created equal. A single injury shouldn’t lead to seven straight losses, but it should frame certain assessments: namely that Dallas has a top heavy blueline, and without its top defender, the depth becomes the house of cards it is. But no team is perfect. Perhaps Heiskanen’s injury will prompt an internal discussion about identifying when an imperfection is actually an open wound.

The 2025 trade deadline

The 2025 trade deadline is an interesting story. Nill made the rare decision of making a deadline move with long term consequences. We’ll get to the big enchilada in a second. For now, let’s discuss where it began.

For the first time, Nill parted with a first-round pick for a deadline add. I’m not gonna re-hash my personal opinions about it since I didn’t hide my personal opinions, nor did I feel like a “wait-and-see” analysis made sense given the body of work both players already had.

Instead I want to focus on what it symbolized: Nill pushing his chips in. This really set the stage for the Mikko Rantanen deal. With one first round pick on the table, why not all of them if you believe this is the year? I know people’s first instinct is to analyze the trade in retrospect, and that’s fine. It’s a little like the offseason, with hits accompanied by misses, just in more dramatic fashion and with a smaller group of players.

I’m more curious about what this means for the future. Is this something we can expect in the future? Or was this a one-off — Nill making a move framed against an unlikely set of circumstances? Will Nill’s replacement follow the Nill playbook, or will he (or she!²) strike his own match and start anew?

The Rantanen deal is the kind of deal that defines the fortunes of a franchise. Ideally, the Rantanen move entails long term success. Not many fans are feeling optimistic. But that’s the difference between the 2025 deadline and previous ones: Nill’s moves will be felt this year and beyond.

Closing thoughts

The Heiskanen injury will continue to be the story until it’s not, but contenders aren’t built overnight, and looking back — I can safely say that Nill built exactly that. It just so happens that the mistakes have proven costly in an unpredictable way. However, mistakes aren’t fatal until they are. And the Stars will be able to change the narrative this Saturday.

No matter what your thoughts are of Dallas’ future, it’s hard to call the season on the whole a failure. Dallas got the big fish to max term. Their young stars reached new heights. They finished second in the division. Et cetera.

I understand that nobody cares about regular season success. It’s Cup or Bust. I happen to agree with that too. You make the big move to win big. Nothing else matters. But Dallas’ most critical wounds weren’t self-inflicted. That’s not to say they don’t have self-inflicted scars to show. But I don’t think you can ignore the rotten luck they had on the injury front. Should one player be enough to excuse a potential first round exit? No. That’s a valid argument. But it’s an argument about this year. And 2025 was about more than just one year.

So we’re not there yet. Maybe the 2025 Dallas team isn’t either: as in, there, on a path towards the Cup. But some paths take longer than others. It’s hard to argue they aren’t at least headed in the right direction assuming good health.

1. I love being wrong. Although to be fair, I have always said “let’s see the second half of his season.”

2. You can’t convince me that Meghan wasn’t the smartest Chayka.