Armchair GM Mode: Let's talk about a potential Star, Chris Kreider (and that Buffalo win)

Also: why it doesn't make sense re: Kreider.

Happy new year, Stars fans!

And what a treat for hockey fans in the south overall, as Dallas (NHL), Texas (AHL), and Idaho (ECHL) all picked up victories on New Years Eve.

It looked like Dallas might have earned a spot back to top three in the Central, but Colorado was able to put away Winnipeg, making the race from here on out extremely tight. Granted, Dallas has the second-best goal differential in the division, and third-best in the West overall, but games-in-hand are only luxuries if you’re already over.

For a minute it looked like Dallas might not ever solve Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Unlike in previous games where the Stars have made opposing goalies look like Vezina regulars, Luukkonen was on a legit heater. I thought his save on Logan Stankoven was one of the best saves I’ve seen all year, even if it wasn’t the most dramatic. But not only did they eventually crack the Finnish goalie’s code, but their top players did, as Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston all registered goals.

In my breakdown rating all of Dallas’ “excuses” I mentioned that the room for optimism was as simple as it is probable: the Stars’ best players are too far below their own standards to continue experiencing their current lows. Tuesday night was not an ‘I told you so’ so much as a ‘you’re liable to see more of it.’ Granted, no one’s planning any parades. Beating Chicago and Buffalo should be mandatory, even in a league of parity. That’s what makes January’s schedule so interesting. There’s no real Down And Out team. Sure, the Rangers and the Red Wings are certified lameducks, but these aren’t tanking teams either. Except for Toronto, it’s just a lot of quality hockey lined up for the new year.

The hope is that the top line can carry that momentum. It’s not gonna happen overnight, but they’ll be in a position to prove it. We’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about Matt Dumba drawing back in, as Lian Bichsel was sent back down to the AHL for real (for real). As I said on Twitter, there’s simply no two ways about it: Bichsel is one of Dallas’ top six defenders, and belongs in the NHL. But you can grip your pitchfork and still respect that Dumba had a shockingly good game last night, including breaking up a Tage Thompson rush which is no easy feat.

One good game does not a turnaround make, however. That much is obvious. But there might be something to the notion that Dumba’s injury, which was never revealed, might have been affecting him prior to him going on IR. I don’t think that’s likely given that Dumba’s game was and has been in decline for a long time, but I’m trying to respect some level of truth to it, however meager. The likelier, uglier side is that no matter what Dumba becomes, Dallas is not gonna be so quick to admit to a $3.7 million gaffe. He’ll be given a lot of rope. No, I don’t personally like it. It’s one of the pervasive, logical inconsistencies of Win Now, and “the NHL is not a development league”: what happens when a developing players helps you win now? But it’s the reality of it.

Now, onto the real topic of today.

Chris Kreider

I’m surprised people mention Kreider. Or maybe not. For many years, Kreider has been an elite winger, with size, speed, and a wicked shot. Interestingly enough, Patrick Bacon’s WAR model rates him extremely high, even going so far as to measure only a soft decline that belies his mere 13 points (12 of which are goals) so far this year.

Evolving-Hockey’s model rates him as completely substandard. Except on the power play, where he rates as elite — exactly the kind of forward a team like the Stars, with their truly bizarre run of inefficiency, can use (assuming he’s utilized correctly).

Micah Blake McCurdy’s model rates Kreider somewhere in between both. All the same, every model respects a decline of some sort. How much of that is on a Rangers team that is absolutely spiraling? That’s the real question. If you concede some measure of team effects, then Kreider is a very interesting add. There’s just one small (and one big) problem: he’s a left winger.

Dallas’ left side is well-spoken for between Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn, and Mason Marchment. Essentially, Marchment’s injury would have to be more serious than it already is for Dallas to consider finding an equivalent. The other big problem is that Kreider is $6.5 million until 2028., meaning he would still be on the roster when Robertson becomes an RFA. So Dallas would be getting his worst years unless he turned into a Matt Duchene facsimile.

However, in fairness, Kreider does have experience playing right move, and so does Marchment for that matter. While I don’t believe wingers switching sides is as simple as a center playing wing, the flexibility of the forward position is worth noting all the same. The real question is whether or not Kreider still has some good years left in him.