Armchair GM Mode: Let's talk about a potential Star reunion with Reilly Smith

Could the current Ranger be a good addition?

Here’s the thing. The trade market this year, sucks.

No seriously. Here’s the top five available players per Chris Johnston: Ivan Provorov, Marcus Pettersson, Cam Fowler, Taylor Hall, and Mikael Granlund. That’s not to call these players, awful. However, if you’re a team trying to win the Stanley Cup, they aren’t exactly needle movers either. Even the good ones, like Hall and Granlund are well past their prime (don’t be fooled by Granlund’s production). This season is neither a buyer nor seller’s market. It’s not even a market. Hockey has a barter system this year.

Obviously, things can change. A team that thought it was tanking might suddenly turn things around, like Utah. A team that thinks they’re competitive might flop, like Vancouver. And so on. Dallas is largely hitting their stride thanks to a strong surge in controlling shot quality. It’s still a long way until the trade deadline. But the Stars believe this could be the year, which makes their use of LTIR all the more crucial.

That brings us to Reilly Smith.

Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

Unlike the Rangers, Smith is having an okay season, with 15 points in 29 games so far. Better yet, his underlying numbers are pretty good too. Falling offense (though still above the mean), improving defense (though still subpar), bad finishing and excellent special teams = an unspectacular but above average winger.

Why it works

Theoretically, this is Tampa’s trade for Blake Coleman. Sure he’s not a star, but he would be an upgrade over someone like Evgenii Dadonov. This is what defines the elite teams, which is no fat. Granted, I think Dadonov is a solid player. But right now he’s punching above his weight, reunited with Jamie Benn and next to Sam Steel. Granted, it’s only a line because of the Tyler Seguin injury, but it’s not a good one. They’re getting outshot, and outscored¹. In addition, Smith’s added two-way ability would help being on a line with Matt Duchene and Mason Marchment — two players who have historically been lacking (to various degrees) in this department.

In many ways this seems like a no brainer. Smith won’t cost a lot, literally and figuratively. He’s $3.75 million against a cap that ends after the season, allowing the Stars to add more, whether on defense or offense. Rangers won’t be asking for the moon, and he’s an upgrade over several players currently in the lineup, not to mention, he can play either wing. And — Dallas hasn’t exactly thrived with their forward trios. Throwing a good forward into the mix won’t hurt. Heck, even on a top line that’s still in something of a boxscore foxhole.

Why it doesn’t

Theoretically, this is Toronto’s trade for Nick Foligno. The Coleman trade is somewhere between a reference and a canard. “Every important run use veteran experience.” Yea. Just like Thomas Harley and Logan Stankoven, right?

Every important run needs a good player if you can add one. Smith’s a good player, but he’s also a downgrade over Seguin. If Seguin returns in time for the playoffs but isn’t what he used to be, then Dallas has added for the sake of adding. If Seguin returns in time for the playoffs but is exactly what he used to be, then Dallas is slightly better. But where does he go? The top line? With Benn and Johnston?

Smith has spent the majority of his time in New York with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider in top six minutes. Granted, both players have been struggling mightily. But Smith’s production on such a big line with top six minutes worries me. At that point, I feel like Kaapo Kakko is much more interesting². Kakko only has one less point than Smith on the season with lesser linemates and lesser minutes. And that brings us to…

The verdict

IMO, Dallas needs a hockey trade, which is why I like Kakko more than Smith. Granted, that’s a different article for a different time. For now I mention it to highlight that Smith is not a needlemover (again, neither is Kakko, but he has skills that I find more interesting). He doesn’t have any one specific skill that’s gonna break the game wide open. But he does improve the roster.

And that’s what brings us back to that age-old debate: is Dallas good enough that a player who can improve the margins will make a difference? Coleman worked for Tampa because they had Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Point, and Hedman doing 98 percent of the work to win. Coleman was just something to pump that leftover two percent. Is Oettinger ready to turn turn into Vasilevskiy, Robertson into Kucherov, Hintz into Point, or Heiskanen into Hedman?

That’s unfair to everyone involved, granted, but it’s just to illustrate my point. What kind of team is Dallas? If we know who this team is, then we know what Smith can add.

1. Hence my criticism of the line combinations. I see no reason not to give Mavrik Bourque a more extended look there.

2. From a marketing standpoint, a bigger Finnish mafia > Dallas reunion.