Game 5 Stray Observations (First Round): Dallas takes control of the series with a 6-2 win over Colorado

Wyatt Johnston arrived in the nick of time.

I gotta admit. I don’t understand the discourse.

Dallas did everything they could to burn whatever regular season goodwill they had by losing seven straight to end the year. As far as I’m concerned, the Stars earned it all back. Until tonight, every series in the West was even. Vegas is locked into a grudge match with Minnesota. L.A. and Edmonton look like two teams without their respective heads (head coaches that is), all sound and fury, signifying nothing resembling a gameplan or tactic. Connor Hellebuyck in Winnipeg has turned into the playoff pumpkin every generic talking head warned us about¹. Of all the teams predicted to crash and burn, everyone checked off Dallas as the most likely to be upset. Yet they’re the only underdog living in relative comfort by comparison.

If there was any doubt about that control, it was nixed in the first period of Game 5. In a series that has seen barrages go both ways, Monday night was the rare even keel, as Dallas minimized Colorado’s biggest threats while their own big threats hit the scoresheet.

It’s the Stanley Cup playoffs. There’s no time for joy joy feelings. There’s only time for a reprieve after a series end. But you can certainly stand to feel a little less anxious. Monday night was a familiar story, with Dallas playing extremely well from top to bottom, and in net against an opponent who strikes like lightning, but can’t seem to generate much rain.

This sets up an elimination game that will require an interminable wait until Thursday. Maybe that’s a good thing. Maybe that’s Miro Heiksanen’s return music. Even if it isn’t, it’s hard to feel the same anxiety many fans felt earlier this month, when it seemed like the Stars could barely be trusted to show up. Instead, the anxiety is about whether they can accomplish what it feels like they deserve: a first-round series win.

Wyatt Johnston

Johnston has had an odd series. Yes, he’s been quiet. But neither Jamie Benn nor Evgenii Dadonov have done much to prop up his offensive game. At the same time he’s commonly attached to the Esa Lindell-Cody Ceci pair, and is commonly opposite the Nathan MacKinnon line with Cale Makar. In other words, that was a huge goal by a player asked to carry a huge load. It doesn’t put Johnston out of the woods. This is only the first round. But Johnston being able to generate confidence will pay big dividends the longer this postseason goes. He was a major player last year in the postseason.

So expect the PDO gods to start cutting him some slack as he’s been cutting his own path.

Mikko Rantanen

I’ve talked about the Rantanen discourse, and why his “playoff performer” label is not only unfair, but somewhat lazy. However, it’s one thing to be shut out. It’s another to be downright invisible. This is probably stretching things a bit, as I don’t actually think Rantanen’s been terrible by any stretch. In some ways, this is also the nature of small sample sizes. But there are no two ways about it at this point: Dallas needs more from him. Thankfully that’s what Dallas got in Game 5, as the second period marked his official goal-scoring entry into this series, along with a three-point night. Like Johnston, Rantanen is key to any designs Dallas has of going on a deep run.

The second period jump scare

For a second it look like Colorado was preparing to storm back. Scoring two quick goals to cut the lead within one, I saw the doomers pop their heads out in our Discord. It was shortlived, however. Honestly I didn’t really see these goals as some sort of What We Learned moments. Yes, Nathan MacKinnon got the best of Matt Duchene, but how many players will MacKinnon beat one on one? Most (read: all). This is the kind of team the Avalanche are. They won’t beat you on the rush, or on the forecheck. They’ll just beat you. That’s what gamebreaking talent can do. And Colorado has one of the best ensembles for moments like that.

Still, Dallas ended that period as the rightful owner in deserved, and observed goals.

Alex Petrovic

I didn’t think Petrovic stood out all that much last year, in part because he didn’t really stand out in Texas. I guess that’s a pretty good sign: when the jump to the NHL affects your game not one iota. Drawing in over players like Matt Dumba and Brenden Smith says a lot about, well…Dumba and Smith, but it also says a lot about Petrovic. Sure, scoring a goal was nice (it went to Mason Marchment eventually), but he’s actually played more minutes than Lian Bichsel. In those minutes, Dallas is a +3 in shot differential.

In many ways, Petrovic is a convenient symbol of Dallas’ blueline. Thought to be Dallas’ weakest link heading into the series, they have been anything but. Not only has Thomas Harley continued playing at an elite level, but everyone has stabilized against an attack that was supposed to exploit their lack of depth.

The Colorado perspective

You never know who needs to hear it: but skip this section if you don’t like hearing about the “other” side.

It’s kind of incredible. Colorado was supposed to be a legit contender. They still are, and I don’t want to downplay their skill level just because they’re down but not out. But I don’t know how you can feel good about your long term prospects if you’re the Avalanche to have this much trouble against such a depleted Stars roster. I know I keep using this analogy, but how would Stars fans feel about their immediate future if they were down in this series to an Avs team without MacKinnon and Makar? It would probably feel…humiliating. That’s not just an injured team. That’s an incomplete team.

The Avalanche are either gonna feel humiliated and leverage that to force a Game 7, or it’ll be confirmation of an inconvenient truth: that Colorado couldn’t even beat Dallas on their worst day.

1. I still feel like this is superficial analysis, but make no mistake: Hellebuyck is doing himself zero favors.