Game 50 Stray Observations: Jake Oettinger looks like Jake Oettinger to beat Buffalo 2-1

Not the best game for everyone else, but one of the best for Oettinger.

The first game back from the All-Star break always seems to have the feel of an After The Hangover dynamic. Through one period, Dallas looked like they were shaking off alcohol poisoning, getting out shot 28 to 12 (going by attempts since it makes more semantic sense to call a shot attempt a shot instead of giving that designation to a shot that is only a shot if it doesn’t miss the goaltender).

I wouldn’t say they ‘woke up’ exactly. More like Jake Oettinger carried them through the full 60, keeping them on their toes and riding the wave of belief as they more or less stole two points from a Buffalo that isn’t good, but has had good goaltending in the month of January.

I wrote about what we need to see from the Dallas Stars in the second half at D Magazine. Using the template for what a Cup contender statistically looks like — “100 or more points, top 10 in both special teams, top five in goals-for percentage, top five in expected goals-for percentage, top five in SRS (a measure of goal differential in the context of strength of schedule, per Hockey-Reference), and reached at least the second round of the playoffs the previous year” — you’ll notice a common theme. Dallas is really good on almost every category that wouldn’t see a significant uptick if they simply got a better performance from Oettinger. One great night is not an omen, but it’s at least a sign, as Oettinger outdualed the best goaltender (Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen) of January.

There won’t be a game between now and March 8 that doesn’t diverge into discussions about what the Stars need at the deadline. Expect to keep waiting. With so many teams on the cusp of falling out (LA) or gaining ground (Pittsburgh), we probably won’t see genuine movement until the day of.

For now I leave you with this question, which I’d love to hear you answer to in the comments: except for Chris Tanev, does the current market offer what Dallas needs to in order to significantly upgrade its weakest link?

What’s up, Stars Power Stray?

Although they scored, the Stars had multiple stretches of 5 on 3 hockey, and just seemed…adrift. The power play is the one area besides goaltending that needs to figure itself out before the playoffs, and unlike goaltending, Dallas has zero excuse.

Listen, Jamie Benn’s regression was always due, and everyone here knew it. The question would always be about degree. However, DeBoer and Spott seem to be keeping the faith. There’s a reason for that: Benn has been excellent on the faceoff dots. In terms of faceoff plus/minus on the power play, Benn ranks seventh in the league. However, Jeff Carter and Jean-Gabruel Pageau are also in the top 10. Yet who would want to see them on this power play? I don’t want to rehash our faceoff discussion in October except to say why not tinker?

It’s possible that Dallas’ power play gets there by season’s end, but if the point of a power play is to score, then how about replacing him with someone that consistently scores, like Matt Duchene? Duchene, by the way, has as many power play points as Benn in 19 less power play minutes on a lesser unit

A modest proposal re: adding a forward at the deadline

We all know that Dallas needs to fix the blueline. But may I propose a counterargument? If they still believe in Lundkvist, and if Tanev is not available…what defensemen that can fit within Dallas’ cap is so significant an upgrade that they’re worth trading Monahan prices for?

I’d love to see one of Mavrik Bourque or Logan Stankoven play between Benn and Joe Pavelski, but in the absence of that? One of the consequences of Wyatt Johnston going to the top line is that the new-look Steel line hasn’t been all that. Right now they’re clocking a 48 percent expected goal share, getting outshot 84-87, and outscored 2-3. Steel’s been a fantastic depth add, but he can’t drive a line, and I’m not even sure if Pavelski’s fall off the metaphorical cliff hasn’t actually happened and we just decided not to talk about it.

Either way, it wouldn’t be the craziest thing IMO. (Part of my pushback against the idea of adding a defensemen, besides the market right now, is that the time to improve the blueline was in the summer when they had the opportunity to buy out Ryan Suter.)

Thomas Harley needs more minutes on the PK?

This is a separate topic for another day. But nothing screams confirmation bias like playing a defenseman a lot of minutes, and treating those minutes like there’s no alternative when no alternative has been explored. This is less about who Jani Hakanpaa and Esa Lindell are as penalty killers, and more about Dallas’ choice to play them so much. This is the kind of logic that has kept Radek Faksa (well, besides his contract) on the roster. “Well he plays a lot on the PK.” Good for him. For two to three minutes a game you have someone who can contribute. What about the other 12-to-15 minutes at even strength? (And yes, I know Faksa got on the scoresheet. And no, it doesn’t change anything.)

Harley has plenty of skills that translate in the defensive zone, and we’ve done some film room analysis on them here. His puck handling to clear the puck with control, his agility to maneuver in tight spaces, his offensive vision that allows him to anticipate the offensive vision of opponents…it’s all there and in the 29 minutes he’s played on the PK, he’s delivered.

This is the kind of thing Dallas may find valuable if they want to transition into a future without Lindell (his contract ends after next season) or Hakanpaa (whose contract ends this season). Besides, I can’t think of a single competitive team who justifies their top four with role players instead all-situations defenders.

This isn’t a criticism of DeBoer, and as mentioned, it’s not even about the players themselves. It’s about the discussions we have about how we assess value. Do we value strong even strength players, strong special teams merchants, and what kind of combination is preferred in proportion to role usage?

I’m all for discussion and lively debate. Just don’t tell me up is actually down just because we’re stuck in a cave.

The Buffalo Perspective

The Sabres are a team that needs to start cashing in on their assets. Getting Zach Benson at 13th overall in 2023 was just stupid. They’re stacked with young talent at all positions between Quinn, Peterka, Levi, Power, and (Ryan) Johnson. Outside of the NHL they have Jiri Kulich, Matthew Savoie, Noah Ostlund, and Isak Rosen. It’s bonkers. But it doesn’t matter how well you draft if it doesn’t create a winning NHL roster.

This is where I’d like to see Buffalo actually leverage those assets into quality veteran talent. Turn those prospects/young players into a right shot defensemen, a starting goaltender, and a two-way third line center. Yes, those prospects could become better versions of what you end up getting, but you’re also selling high to capitalize on a core that’s already ready to compete. Vancouver may have been foolish to trade Hunter Brzustewicz, but big pic: they sold high and got what they needed.

Just saying.

Ugh: Toronto Maple Leafs tomorrow

As much as I enjoy seeing Toronto lose, these Dallas-Toronto games are always snoozefests. Both teams play each other in the most obnoxiously conservative way possible and I have zero explanation for it except that the Stars don’t know how to make Toronto a punchline like the rest of the Eastern Conference does.

Toronto’s not really in a precarious spot because the East is wide open (hey wait a minute - why aren’t people writing about that like how we couldn’t read a single piece last year about how the “West is wide open” despite it producing the 2023 Cup champion? Eh?). But they usually dominate the regular season. Instead they’re just sputtering along.

Because these games are so dumb, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dallas, off a back-to-back, runs them out of the building. However, the more likely scenario is that between two teams that love to win one goal games, one of them will win by one goal. (Also, am I the only one that badly wants Nicholas Robertson? He’ll never be his brother, but his treatment by Sheldon Keefe is unforgivable.)