How Does It Affect Dallas? Carolina's blockbuster trade with Colorado for Mikko Rantanen
Whoa.
It kind of sucked that in the middle of Dallas playing last night’s contest with Vegas like it was Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, a blockbuster trade hung over American Airlines Center.
I can’t blame ESPN coverage for being distracted. Hell, I was distracted. Although I can blame them for their tepid coverage and non-analysis1. Nonetheless, one of the biggest trades of the last decade went down. You probably already know it, but it’s worth recording in full here.
To Carolina: Mikko Rantanen (at $4.62 million AAV, which Chicago retained 50 percent on), Taylor Hall ($6 million AAV), Nils Juntorp
To Colorado: Martin Necas ($6.5 million AAV), Jack Drury ($1.72 million AAV), 2025 second rounder, 2025 third, and a 2026 fourth rounder
To Chicago: 2025 third rounder
Rantanen probably needs no introduction. Since the 2022-2023 season, he’s top six in production with 273 points, above Artemi Panarin and Matthew Tkachuk. He’s also a playoff beast, with 49 points in only 38 postseason games. Needless to say, this feels eerily similar to the Florida/Calgary trade. Granted, Rantanen is losing Nathan MacKinnon, but I wouldn’t call Sebastian Aho (his linemate for the 4 Nations Face-Off) a step down. Aho, unlike MacKinnon, is strong defensively, so the Hurricanes get a lot better. And here’s their current projected lineup.
Colorado certainly downgraded on paper. But I don’t believe they downgraded to the level people think. Yea Rantanen is one of the best wingers in the game, but Necas only has nine less points than Rantanen and is two years younger.
“Nine points is a lot.”
You do realize that Rantanen has 64 points, right?
“Oh…”
Exactly. Necas has come into his own this year2, and will likely finish in the 80-100 point range. Both teams really struck while the iron was hot. Here’s their current projected roster.
I like this for both teams. Colorado wasn’t gonna give Rantanen what he wanted, and Carolina will be able to afford what Rantanen wants: simple as that.
A lot of hockey nerds are rejoicing that Eric Tulsky was the mastermind here, and I have to agree. How many times do teams end up losing a quality player for nothing simply so they can “maintain locker room chemistry” or “compete” despite being on a road to nowhere? How many times do teams end up ‘selling low’ like New York on Kappo Kakko because they need an expiration date rather than tea leaves to make a decision? However, Chris MacFarland runs a progressive operation like Tulsky. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that both happened to be the perfect trade partners.
About Dallas
ESPN’s Leah Hextall offered some insider info during the game: Jim Nill is only looking at UFAs given the cap structure for next season. This naturally prompted jokes about a ‘Brock Market’ since this likely puts the spotlight on Brock Nelson and Brock Boeser specifically. I’ve already written about them here and here (paid) as potential fits.
As great as the Vegas win was, the Stars still have holes. Not enough is said about the blueline help needed, and then there’s the power play drama. The Carolina deal really cements what it takes to capture that true difference-maker, and it’s one of the reasons why I tried to dig deep in reflecting about Seth Jones: to get, you have to get. The less you’re willing to give, the less you’re able to get. This should naturally prompt debate about two schools of thought.
This doesn’t actively highlight a deficiency in Dallas or Nill’s thinking. Unlike most contenders, they’ve drafted at such a high level, there is a core to back up the core. The notion of a copycat league should operate like a heuristic — not a philosophy. The Stars have their way, and given their success in recent years, I’m not here to second-guess their approach.
However, there are no two ways about what we’re gonna be talking about if Dallas doesn’t end up with a big name. “[Insert GM’s name here] needed to pull a Tulsky.”
Maybe. Just because Tulsky has a PhD in chemistry, worked in nanotechnology for a decade, and holds 27 US patents doesn’t make him a genius…okay it does, but time will tell on whether it’s a homerun for Carolina or not. As for teams like Dallas, my hope is that moves like this inspire teams to be more bold3. Trades for Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk should have been proof enough (the trade for Devon Toews belongs here too). If Rantanen becomes the next example, then hockey GMs are officially on notice.
Dallas vs. St. Louis preview
The odds are pretty close because this is the second half of a back-to-back for the Stars (one of the reasons why Vegas was such an underdog per Evolving-Hockey’s model). Plus the Blues have been decent-ish lately, and are within striking distance of the second wild card spot.
Lian Bichsel looked fantastic last night. There’s no doubt in my mind that he’s here to stay as long as the cap allows. I also appreciate that despite being 6’7, we don’t have to have these obnoxious hair-splitting discussions about “point of contact” whenever he throws a hit. He brings the violence. But he doesn’t bring the idiocy.
Should be a tough test given fatigue though. Especially with Dylan Holloway looking better and better in St. Louis’ top six.
What exactly is a new hockey fan supposed to learn from Dave Jackson? That on-ice officials will make a call, or they won’t? Wow, thanks!
Watch this shift from earlier this season versus Philly if you’re not a believer.
In a perfect world, Noah Dobson would have been THE target for Dallas, IMO.
Thanks for the Dave Jackson comment - dude is totally useless. When he came on I told my wife “he’ll absolve the ref of any responsibility and tell us nothing informative” and after listening she agreed. How do guys who clearly aren’t very good at this have such jobs?
With the trades starting early if Nil doesn’t get out there and make a deal all the players we want will begone. Please help the PP.