How Does It Affect The Dallas Stars? The Edmonton vs. Florida 2024 Cup Finals What-If Edition

Florida's up 3-0. "Where was THIS Edmonton team?" Stars fans keep asking.

I hope you’re enjoying the draft coverage here. My instinct is to always write more even when less is better. If you don’t care or aren’t interested, I’ve tried to make these profiles digestible while packing them with all the necessary info. Honestly, I’ve been pleasantly surprised. Yes, they get less views, less engagement, and they don’t bring any new subscribers, but not near as low as I expected. In other words, the readership here seem like the ride-or-die type and I appreciate it.

This is always a weird time because not only is there still hockey being played, but teams are free to wheel and deal ahead of the free agent frenzy, and the countdown to the draft begins as well. A lot is suddenly up in the air. Vegas is apparently swirling around the Mitch Marner rumors, Washington bought Capfriendly, Patrik Laine is again on the move, as is Carolina star-in-the-making Martin Necas, and the Arizona Coyotes are still in the news.

Meanwhile, it’s all quiet on the victory green front. Jim Nill won the Jim Gregory Award, which probably doesn’t change Dallas’ plans much. Nill has talked openly about calling it a career in the near future, but it’s hard to imagine the Stars without Nill at the helm. Watching Florida destroy Edmonton means it’s time to whip out the What-If Scenarios. I don’t find this kind of stuff productive. It’s the whole “quarter of an inch” discussion from The Mighty Ducks, just with a different coat of parallel paint.

• What if this Edmonton team showed up against Dallas?

Sure. And…

• What if last year’s Vegas team showed up against Dallas?

We’ve already talked about the illusion of Dallas’ offensive depth here. We’ve talked about an elite Dallas blueline that might have needed a little more pepper. And I’ll wrap up my autopsy report next week by discussing special teams/goaltending.

But it’s important to take away the right lessons from a loss. Dallas is in a strange hyperspace where they’re even better positioned at least in terms of their team’s quality, but there’s paradoxically more urgency if they want to knock off these Panthers. Florida is no Cindarella contender, and they weren’t last year either. Back-to-back Finals and one win away from becoming the 2024 champs with a 3-0 lead. Don’t at all be surprised if they’re back this time next year.

While I’m not interested in talking about outcomes in parallel universe, it is fun to look at different elements.

Could Dallas duplicate Florida’s physicality?

There’s always a Narrative. It’s a story that isn’t really the story, although it could be, but it’s rarely based on facts or truth. Usually it’s just the easiest thing for the broadcast booth to communicate to casual fans as a Reason Why Team X is Losing. One of them is Florida’s physicality. They’re bullying Edmonton, or so the Narrative goes.

I do think there’s truth to this but not in the way the broadcast booth wants you to think. Florida is playing the Oilers physical not because they’re bigger and stronger. Edmonton ranks 4th on the size scale, with an average height of 6’1 and and average player weight of 202 lbs. Florida ranks 30th. Yes, Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk are genuine punks, but it’s the Panthers structure, positioning, and team speed that allows them to get in Edmonton’s face. (Dallas ranked 5th, by the way.)

That, to me, is the difference and why the Stars couldn’t get “physical” with Edmonton. They were the slower team. And except for Mason Marchment, nobody has that David Patrick Kelly gaze. And no, Benn is not that kind of guy. Yes, he routinely crosses the line, and can be throw hits but that’s very different from a player can relishes their villainous role.

If Dallas could have played more assertively, they would have. However, that wasn’t their biggest problem.

Edmonton’s power play shut out

If you want to start some place when it comes to shutting down McDavid, start with their power play. Florida has absolutely done this. Basically, they’ve given Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl free reign to take their shots and focus on shutting down the rest of the ice, along with McDavid’s movement.

And it’s worked.

“Why couldn’t Dallas do that?”

The Stars had a bad PK in the playoffs. But here’s the thing: they weren’t some kind of monster in the regular season either. This is something I’ll be digging into next week but it bears emphasizing: Dallas needs to pick one side of special teams they’re elite at, whether it’s the power play or the penalty kill, if you want to win the Cup, you have to be able to roll at least some of these habits into the postseason. The Stars weren’t bad, but they’re not a team that can put opponents on tilt with it. That’s what Florida is doing. They have Edmonton on tilt, and have had them on tilt ever since Game 2.

Can we get a Barkov?

When fans do this to themselves “Dallas would be representing way harder!” we get tunnel vision. It’s easy to look at Edmonton’s losses and envision the flaws Dallas could have exploited. Less easy is to look at Florida’s strengths and envision what they’d be leveraging over Dallas.

So let’s credit Aleksander Barkov: the current “Most Underrated Center” heavyweight titleholder.

Not sure what this chart means and need a quick and dirty explainer? I’ve got you covered! Click here to learn more about Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM).

Hintz is good but he’s simply a level below Barkov.

Right now that’s a big part of the Panthers success. In the heads-up matchup versus Connor McDavid, he’s been dominant, and that dominance didn’t change when Knoblauch gave him the Leon Draisaitl matchup on Thursday.

So again: don’t do this to yourself Stars fans.

Yes, I think Dallas vs. Florida would have been the more interesting matchup. But it would not have resulted in a more interesting outcome. Edmonton beat Dallas fair and square. Let’s leave it at that and move on to next year, shall we?