Some Stars Stats: On Dallas' best players becoming their best players

Stars becoming stars, and other strays.

St. Louis isn’t a very good team. Whether it’s shot share, goal share, or expected goal share, they’re bottom 10 across the spectrum. Even with Jim Montgomery taking over, their brief new coach bump was shortlived, and they’re back to being an also-ran. Unlike Washington, who regenerated their team rather than rebuilt, the Blues are locked into their current core, which makes their future murky¹. But you can only beat who they put in front of you, and Dallas left no doubt on Sunday night. Sort of.

It’s kind of a weird time for Dallas. They’re a really good team. One of the best. Fourth-highest goal differential (+51) in the entire league. The things that were bothering them (the power play) are finally clicking. And the injury-front gets better with Lian Bichsel likely drawing in on Tuesday. For some fans, this somehow doesn’t feel like enough, even with the Stars gaining ground on Winnipeg.

I guess that brings us to the trade deadline. Although I have to ask: does it really? Jim Nill has made his moves, whether we agree or not. It’s quite evident that he never felt like Dallas needed much to begin with. Which is why it’s worth stressing what their current win streak represents: the hockey gods paying their dues. In fact, let’s demonstrate.

Right now, the Stars are third in shot quality generated per hour of even-strength play. That’s elite. But here’s the thing. From the beginning of the season until the end of December, they were were ranked 4th in expected goals per hour of EV play—also elite. The current stretch is nothing more than mathematical adjustment as far as I’m concerned. They deserved better outcomes, and now better outcomes have followed.

The good news is that their shooting percentage between 2024 and 2025 didn’t experience some drastic change. Yes, their shooting percentage has improved between calendar years, but it’s not the difference you’d think (at EV, their shooting % was top 12 from October until the end of December). Throw in their number one rush offense, and the recipe was always there. Speaking of which, in case you’re wondering what the updated numbers look like².

Data and visual per AllThreeZones.

So yea. Not bad.

The power play is another topic. And we’ll dig deep into that this week. But all the same, it’s encouraging to see the chickens come home to roost for the hockey gods.

Of course, none of this means there isn’t work to be done. For such a poor team, St. Louis had way too much space to attack, which explains why they took twice as many shots (42 to 21). While winning games is impressive with Miro Heiskanen out, it doesn’t change the fact that unlike Dallas’ offense³, which has had good underlying numbers all year, the team defense has had merely average defensive numbers all year, and extremely poor underlying numbers now. I’m not here to rain on anyone’s parade (a spritz perhaps?), but there’s a distinct formula for their current success. Dallas is outscoring their problems, plain and simple.

Of course, that’s a good thing. But it raises doubts about whether or not a roster that won’t be 100 percent for the rest of the regular season can catch up to the Jets. That would be the ideal scenario for Dallas; to face somebody like Calgary or Vancouver cheesing their way into a playoff spot, saving the tougher second-round matchup (the winner of Colorado/Minnesota vs. Winnipeg) for when they’re healthier. Just saying. Seeding is always crucial, but it’s always doubly true for an injured team.

Roope Hintz

I might have to devote an entire article to Hintz. Hintz is having a really weird season. Consecutive four-point nights is comically good. And better yet, that shift-to-shift offense matches the game-to-game outcomes.

Data ad visual courtesy of HockeyStatCards.

In some ways, Hintz’ story is Dallas’ story. His offense has been due, and outcomes are starting to match the process.

But it’s not your typical Hintz season. The player who has been garnering Selke love from yours truly against the best of the Selke best has simply not been the same defensive player this year. I’m not gonna go into them now, but I wonder how much of this is due to his icetime dropping.

Last season and the season before that, Hintz was Dallas’ number one center. That’s obviously no longer the case. A lot of forwards started out awkwardly, so this isn’t really a criticism. Rather, I wonder what this adjustment looks like, long term. Certainly nobody’s complaining about Wyatt Johnston taking over the number one center role.

Wyatt Johnston

Speaking of due, there’s no player who’s deserved more than what the hockey gods gave them than Johnston. Through the first 36 games, he had 25 points. A pace of 56 total. In his last 23, he’s tallied 31 for a pace of 109 (!). Granted, I’m not ready to crown Johnston a one-hundred point player. Yet. But let’s do the math.

It’s worth reiterating. When I wrote about Johnston in 2023, and how he wasn’t going to hit the cliched (and untrue) sophomore slump, I did so by looking at Johnston’s rookie cohort: the players that fell into the statistical profile for players his age. This cohort included names like John Tavares, Brady Tkachuk, and Lucas Raymond. Their average sophomore bump was 54 points. Johnston finished with 64. He’s on pace for 74 right now, which is bonkers for a player his age. Tavares finished with 81 his junior year, so I think it’s safe to say.

“Johnston: elite” is not just one of my dumb memes. He has quietly wrestled the top center spot from Hintz. And it’s well-earned. Don’t be surprised if he’s once again leading the way in the playoffs.

Around the world

It was a hell of a weekend on the trade front. Florida traded for Seth Jones at 25 percent retained (bringing his AAV down to an even $7 million per) for Spencer Knight, and a 2026 1st round pick. I liked it, personally. For both teams really. Panthers get better now and don’t have to worry about giving Aaron Ekblad a raise (for all the controversy around Jones, he’s the better player) this summer. Conversely, Chicago got some assets from a contract they said couldn’t be moved. While I’m not as high on Knight—underlying numbers like adjusted save percentage, and goals saved above expected reveal who the better goaltender is, and it’s not Knight—there’s obviously room for growth. Especially given his struggles. So Florida gets better now, Chicago gets some good assets for later. I wouldn’t call it a “win win” but I wouldn’t say anyone lost the deal either.

If there’s good news for Dallas, it’s that Colorado got worse by trading for — and giving up quite a bit — on Ryan Lindgren. It’s probably not the worst thing in the world once Josh Manson returns to have a Lindgren/Kylington bottom pair. But adding players just to add players doesn’t solve a problem. Especially considering the draft capital they gave up. The same could be said for Minnesota, just to a lesser degree. Gustav Nyquist is not moving the needle, but he’s still a very good special teams player on both sides, and the Wild need help. If they lose in the first round, they can thank their PP/PK. Nyquist helps in this regard, so unlike Colorado, there’s at least a vision. But it’s also anything but a Cup or Bust move.

This still technically leaves the Stars in the market. Again, I can’t imagine who they’d be looking at. Rickard Rakell has a lot of term left, which rules him out, and Brock Nelson is gonna cost more than Dallas can afford. That leaves a bunch of depth for a team that already has loads of it. The same could be said about the defensemen on the big trade board. Connor Murphy and Brandon Carlo would make the most sense, except they both have term. And yet again: who gets pushed out at that point?

While it might look odd to see so much unused cap on Dallas’ books, if some of these recent moves prove anything, it’s that you don’t need to spend if you’re not adding value. The Stars will add value when they get healthy. Everything else, at least for now, is just waiting.

1. Yes, I know they’re one point out of a playoff spot. But, hot take: a poor team is a poor team, regardless of barely making the playoffs.

2. Data courtesy of the one and only Corey Sznajder as always.

3. Offense as distinguished from goal-scoring.