Stars Stuff: Profiling more trade deadline additions, which Dallas UFAs should stay (or go), and snuffing out rumors

Rumors suck.

As fun as it’s been to get back into the swing of things, I’m still at a loss regarding what to expect. Because of that, the stage is set for something that fans will either love. Or hate. I don’t think there’s any room for something in between.

As we know, and as we’ve known, the final stretch is more important than usual. Dallas and Minnesota are all but locked into a first-round matchup. The Stars are technically close to the Avs. However, that six point gap doesn’t mention that Colorado has a game in hand on Dallas.

More to the point, Dallas’ strength of schedule per Tankathon is top 10 in terms of difficulty whereas Colorado has one of the easiest. Of course, three of those games are against the Avalanche. It wouldn’t be the craziest thing to see Dallas close the gap, but it is very very unlikely.

For now, we’ll get a few more games watching Dallas wade through the waters without Mikko Rantanen.

In the meantime, it’s worth remembering that it’s unlikely we’ll see any trade deal done before we first hear news about Tyler Seguin. Recall that under the new CBA rules, Dallas can only get the full cap relief of Seguin’s $9.85 million if he expected to miss both the regular season and the postseason. If not, Dallas will receive an extra $3.82 million in relief; a number that represents the average salary on a replacement.

That’s a very big difference. With Seguin’s full contract on LTIR, that’s plenty to generate multiple deals for multiple UFAs, like Jaden Schwartz and Michael Bunting. Without it, the approach could very well shift. After all, if Seguin is expected to return, then suddenly the need to add a forward holds slightly less priority then say, getting a top four defender. Or at least that’s the assumption based on the available Stars assets.

Any more deadline names worth discussing?

I’ve seen internet whispers about Dallas being linked to Tyler Myers. Canucks writer, and all-around good dude Thomas Drance poured cold water on that one with his ‘report’ that only Detroit has made a serious offer.

Part of what’s difficult about sifting through the rumor mill is that we have an open paradox: credible insiders who sometimes…don’t credibly know some of the teams they’re talking about. For example, there are few insiders as credible as Pierre LeBrun. But the idea that Dallas might be able to make a deal with Steven Stamkos work — a player worth eight million in AAV until 2029 — is just flat out preposterous. I’m not trying to be snide here. Nor am I even criticizing LeBrun’s work. He could very well be reporting exactly what he’s credibly heard.

And? I guess I don’t see the point of NOT harmonizing what you’ve heard with what makes sense. What’s the point of reporting something without providing context? Dallas would be announcing to the world that Jason Robertson is for sale and that the receiving team has all the leverage to boot. Yes, I know I’m the guy making the case for Luke Evangelista. But Evangelista is actually elite. Myers is just 6’7 Cody Ceci, and Stamkos is just a Matt Duchene redux whose strength comes from his work on the power play (nearly half his points are on the man advantage); a power play that, as Stars fans know, doesn’t need Stamkos’ help. The same could be said for someone like Rasmus Ristolainen, also linked to Dallas. How does that even work with Dallas’ cap situation next year? Even in a scenario where Philadelphia retained, a 6’4 RHD with street cred costing $2.55 million would increase Ristolainen’s price tenfold.

So that’s always something to keep in mind as we hear rumors, whether the source is credible or not. Does it make sense? Granted, one could make the case that Dallas didn’t have room for Mikko Rantanen last season. After all, Jim Nill would never give up a top prospect already earning his NHL keep. Sure, GMs can be unpredictable at times. Their decisions are sometimes wrong. But it’s very rare that they make no sense.

That’s why one name that deserves attention, much as fans might hate to hear it, is Evander Kane; someone else linked to Dallas. Is he any good at this stage of his career? No. But like it or not, Glen Gulutzan might be inclined to provide feedback since he spent time with him in Edmonton. He also fits the profile of what this team purports itself to be — heavy and more physical — and most critically, he would be cheap¹.

Outside of that, your guess is as good as mine.

Which UFAs to keep, which could go?

Jamie Benn. Adam Erne. Nathan Bastian. Alexander Petrovic. Kyle Capobianco.

I hadn’t thought about this until a reader brought it up. It’s quite possible that to make the cap work on any trade — again, assuming that Seguin comes back — Dallas’ trade partner might like some roster fillers. Safe to say, none of Dallas’ UFAs will likely be kept. With one obvious exception of course.

Benn’s season has been an odd one. It’s both under the radar in a good way, and under the radar in a bad way. He’s on a 50-point pace, and yet all of his underlying performance numbers are lacking. Breaking into the zone, two-way play, defensive stickwork, playmaking — there’s just not much there.

The asterisk here is one: it’s just for one season. Benn’s offensive numbers over the last three seasons have been kind of phenomenal. Two, a lot of this data was before the DJ Steel line.

Ultimately I don’t think there’s any chance Benn goes to free agency. Next year he’ll get the same deal he got this year, minus the performance bonuses, and will likely retire a Star. I do think Dallas needs to ask themselves what Benn really has left at some point, but so far he’s done a really great job of not losing to father time. Sure, there are warts to his game, but I’ve always said offense matters more lower in the lineup. In a sheltered role, in limited minutes, a player like Benn whose shot hasn’t fully left him still matters a great deal.

Programming note

Many thanks to everyone who subscribes. Again, apologies for the lack of Olympics coverage. It was awful timing between when the games were shown, and insurance drama, but we’re back, rocking, and rolling. I’ve got a lot of catching up to do at the other place where I cover the NHL in general, and you re always invited to the gameday threads in the Stars fan Discord.

Have a great day!

1. While it sounds like a lot of teams have shown interest, it likely won’t result in a bidding war.