Stars Stuff: Roope Hintz update, Dallas draws Edmonton for the Western Conference Finals, and previewing the beasts in the East

It's like the 90s all over again!

Let’s start with some odds and ends. It’s easy to forget that, yes, Colorado was without Valeri Nichushkin, but Dallas was also without Roope Hintz. The update Stars media received from Pete DeBoer is that if the Avalanche had forced a Game 7, Hintz would have been a no-go. This isn’t the most reassuring news, given what hockey players typically play through. But at least it sounds like there’s a timeline to get back.

As far as Jani Hakanpaa is concerned, it really sounds like he’s just flat out done. This is just an assumption on my part, but we’ve received no indication that he’s close. Whatever it was is significant, which then begs the question: what kind of player is Dallas getting back when he does return? Without sounding callous, Hakanpaa was already a player in the doghouse of most fans. Getting back a depleted version of a player with already-questionable value doesn’t exactly sound like an upgrade.

To that end, I think we can safely call it a Stars career for Nils Lundkvist, barring any injuries. I thought Lundkvist was more or less fine. Looking at film, a unique profile lurks even if he’s not the impact player we all hoped. Did he play enough minutes for me to judge him one way or the other? Not even close. But this gameplan to throw him a shift every lunar eclipse felt a year too late. Perhaps that parallel universe where this occurs last year instead of this yields a better playoff Lundkvist? Whatever the case, I hope Lundkvist gets the icetime that I think his game deserves. I don’t see top four material, but I think he’s the quintessential peculiar player: the players ‘without a country’ so to speak.

I’m kind of surprised Alex Petrovic didn’t see the ice sooner, given the fact that he was replacing a defender with pretty much the exact same profile. I was kind of harsh on Petrovic on my recap. Admittedly I was biased by my viewing of him in the AHL, where even by the standard of “farm team shutdown defender” he didn’t live up to that profile IMO. And it showed up in modest spurts, where he’s prone to bad reads and slow reactions. He is, however, faster than you’d expect for a guy his size, so his hustle and Keep It Simple Stupid philosophy made for a clean fit.

Of course, the big news is that Dallas now knows their enemy in the Western Conference Finals. These were always my favorite playoff series from back in the 90s: fast, furious, and always the cue for a deep Dallas run (except when Edmonton took care of business). So yea: get hyped.

Quick note: Thank you, random influx of paid subscribers in response to yesterday’s film room analysis on Dallas shutting down Nathan MacKinnon. Curious what you missed? No problem! Here’s a complete list.

It’s Dallas vs. Edmonton for the Western Conference Finals

Bout MF’ing time. Sorry, I’ve been wanting this series for a long time. As in, since the 90s. Those were always my favorite series because, as a fan, you didn’t expect Edmonton to win, but you knew they’d put up a fight. Literally. Constantly. Perpetually. How did I know where to find these? Because I recorded these moments; yes on a VCR.

I’ll have a proper preview tomorrow morning, just as I did in the previous series. For now, I’m just enjoying the moment. And I’m also glad it’s Edmonton.

The Oilers were the better team, just like they were the better team all season. Vancouver was the classic PDO merchant early in the season. In November, they were scoring on seven percent of their point shots, and were a +33 when the expected goals said they should be a -2. “So regression hit them in Round two of the playoffs in Game 7?” Two things: regression doesn’t simply mean “getting worse”, and just because you can’t clock it with an egg timer doesn’t mean it can’t be clocked. Okay three (I know I said two): Somewhere along the way, they turned it around, and credit to them. But teams that rely on nebulous terms like “momentum” and “effort” are always suspicious, because they’re almost always teams that nobody uses to describe them before they start winning.

As for Edmonton, why am I so convinced? Their expected goal differential of 57.57 percent at even strength was the fifth highest mark of any team since 2007. They may look goofy giving up soft goals, and being forced to scramble their way back into games that they were already presumably controlling, but you better believe this team warrants Dallas’ respect.

New York vs. Florida: How does it affect the Stars?

What a matchup. I’ve picked Dallas to win every series. Every series, except the Finals. Why? Because I was confident, especially with the addition of Jake Guentzel, that this might be Carolina’s year. Instead they crashed and burned, igniting lameduck comparisons to the Maple Leafs. So does that change my pick?

Kind of. But not really? As you can see, all four teams going into the Finals rated highly in terms of plus-minus recipe.

This might go without saying, but it still deserves clarification: I don’t make predictions as a fan. Just as I don’t write anything for Stars fandom. This is not me being neither judgmental nor self-righteous. What I’m saying here is that I try to be a servant of criticism above all else. I picked Dallas over Vegas and Colorado (and now Edmonton) because I genuinely believe Dallas is a better team based on the evidence. I don’t believe Dallas was a better team than Carolina, based on the evidence.

Florida and New York are very different beasts, on the other hand. The Western Conference was genuinely better this year. And Vegas and Colorado were great opponents. But unlike those teams, Florida and New York have depth that can match Dallas. They’re difficult for two different reasons:

• New York: Dallas is the better team. In fact, I would argue they’re the better team by a yardstick. But Igor Shesterkin can steal a series. He’s better than Oettinger, full stop. It’s not even particularly close, with Shesterkin posting a .933 SV% since Oettinger entered the league versus Jake’s .917 SV%. That means an already, very deep top nine, doesn’t need much to flip the switch.

That doesn’t mean I’m picking New York in a potential seven-game series. They do have this guy (see attachment) into their top four, after all. But they’re like a slightly jankier version of Dallas, just with a Rancor in net. Because playoff series are so subject to puck luck, the Rangers profile like the perfect “lucky” team. So maybe I am picking them?

• Florida: The Panthers are that team where a potential matchup could go either way. I could see them winning in six, and I could see them losing in four. Like New York, they have that x-factor on their side, which in this case, refers to their special teams.

If you’re Dallas — and incorrectly looking past Edmonton— the one saving grace is that New York vs. Florida should be absolutely brutal. Don’t be surprised if Bennett and Trouba cancel each other out by leaving all kinds of crumbled bodies in their wake, leaving the Western Conference representative against a depleted lineup. Assuming, of course, Dallas vs. Edmonton isn’t a bloodbath of its own.

Programming Note

If Dallas manages to get past Edmonton, I’ll be writing previews as well as reviews for each game; plus a gameday thread in the chat. Seems like it could be fun, right?