Stars Stuff: What's Going On In the Rest Of The West, and How Worried Should Dallas Be?
Who's the loyal opposition?
Through 15 games, Dallas is sitting pretty. It's like all the prophecies and Cup odds working together to deliver on the hopes and dreams we've been mathematically promised. Except if you take away the 1st in the Central status,
you know the common theme for anyone who's been watching every game studiously: they haven't played the part despite getting the results. Remember when the story was all about an anemic power play, and slow starts?
So far things look good. At even strength, they're 4th in expected goals share. 2nd on the PK, and getting better on the Power Play. Their biggest question mark was figuring out the Tyler Seguin line and Matt Duchene has figured that out his damn self. Duchene's impact can't be overstated. With Duchene on the ice, Dallas has outscored opponents 14 to 4.
But what about long term? They’ll be fine. Even though their power play has been a problem, it's a very fixable problem, and some of that will start when Jason Robertson shakes some of his playmaking cobwebs loose. Step back and Dallas is basically last year's team with a better Wyatt Johnston, and a significantly better “Max Domi'“. Add in better versions of Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist and you'd be hard pressed to call anyone actively worse. (Benn is
the biggest regression target, as I documented before the season, but even if he slows down further, it wouldn’t be a crippling development.)
However, no matter how good Dallas is, they have to be better than their opponent, and no opponent is gonna sit there and give them victories just because the odds are in Dallas' favor. In fact, this has been a credible talking point. The Stars can only beat who they put in front of them, but they have yet to beat a genuinely good team. That would normally mean nothing except a coincidence of scheduling except the good teas they've played they've lost to (Vegas, Boston, and Vancouver.) Is that also just a coincidence?
Central
Colorado
As far as the Central goes, it's just Dallas and Colorado right now. I've been arguing with Stars fans for awhile now that Colorado deserves way more respect. They still do, but I'm starting to lean towards the fan's conclusions at this point. The Avalanche are driven by the usual suspects. Their obsessions with Dallas cast-offs paid dividends on Wednesday versus Anaheim, but their bottom six is still atrocious. To be honest, it has me wondering about Chris McFarland's vision. I liked their moves in the aggregate at the time but none of them are paying off. Colton, Tatar, Johansen, Wood, and Drouin have all been non-factors. This is a team that won the Cup just a year ago. Their star players are on the tail-end of their peak production windows. Why aren't they scrambling to secure an all-in status?
Instead the organization seems to be in a kind of funky autopilot. After losing Erik Johnson, they settled for Jack Johnson and nothing else. However, it’s a testament to their MacKinnon-Rantanen-Makar core that they’re 1st in expected goal share at nearly 60 percent (!) per Natural Stat Trick. (Interestingly, Evolving-Hockey clocks in their xG at 56 percent so not sure what’s going on there.)
How much should Dallas be worried? A modest amount. Dallas matches up well with them, but their core is still elite and they have the superior speed advantage. To me this theoretical playoff matchup is gonna come down to who’s healthier by the time they face off.
“Is there no one else?!”
Winnipeg is supposed to be for real. To be sure, they're a team you have to respect. This is a good, attrition-based team with depth that while not taken full advantage of for reasons any Stars fan should be familiar with, nonetheless plays a style that can win games in the regular season or playoffs. While LA clearly got the best player in the Pierre Luc-Dubois trade, Winnipeg won the deal (despite Vilardi going down to yet another injury). In terms of net goal differential, they’re one of the best teams thanks to a strong blend of goaltending, and overall possession.
How much should Dallas be worried? Not much. I have to respect my biases here. Bowness hockey can't get it done in the modern NHL. When you play not to lose, you also lose the ability to win momentum. Elite teams know how to avoid overextending. So no matter how well Winnipeg does, that style catches up to players in the end. Remember when everyone on the team and their dog breathed a sigh of relief being able to play offense again? Winnipeg players are feeling the same way even if they don't know it yet.
Sidebar: Garret Hohl writes absolutely premium hockey content. He’s got a better handle on analytics than I ever will, and he’s got his own Substack covering the Jets. Even if you don’t care about Winnipeg, you should care about understanding hockey better, and he’s one of the best.
The Rest
If Dallas were just a mere contender, I'd talk about other teams, but the Central is weak this year. Arizona and St. Louis round out the best of the rest and while I think both are carving out degrees of respectable, these are not contenders. They
are not Florida types either: teams struggling to make the postseason with enough strong underlying numbers to fear just in case they make the cut.
I will say this about St. Louis: don’t underestimate them. Especially if Binnington acts like a civilized human being. Their forward depth is strong, and diverse, and their blueline, while not gamebreaking, is relatively deep.
Sidebar: Sticktap for Corey Sznajder’s description of them on Twitter the other day. “My takeaway from any Blues game is either “this team could sneak into the playoffs” or “this is the second worst team in the league.” They have no medium switch.”
Pacific
Vancouver
Ah, the Canucks. It wasn't that long ago that this team needed to burn it down. Now they're the top team in a murderous Pacific. Is it a mirage? You bet your ass.
A team is merely defined by wins and losses. If that were the case then Boston should have won the Cup last year. Florida should have ousted in the first round. And Dallas should have kept given Bowness an eight-year contract for getting Dallas to the Cup Finals. The Canucks are the top team in the Pacific if we define them less by wins and losses, but does that make them the top performer?
No. Here’s the only stat you need to know: in all situations, they’re shooting 14 percent. That’s a full two percentage points higher than any team since 2007. Fine, here’s another: the average shooting percentage for an everyday NHLer is 9-10 percent. For perspective, Jamie Benn’s career SH% at even strength is 11 percent. Right now the Canucks have 10 players (!!!) shooting over 11 percent. How much you want to bet that Vancouver won’t finish with 10 Jamie Benn-level shooters?
However, one thing I'll say in defense of Vancouver is that a lucky team is not the same as a bad team getting results they don't deserve. It can be a good team overperforming in proportion to a traditional standard, or their own. The Canucks have a strong forward core, good goaltending, and Quinn Hughes. That’ll count for something in the long run.
Sidebar: JFresh has a great breakdown at EPRinkside on the truth behind the Canucks and their silly numbers.
How much should Dallas be worried? If the Canucks were just a normal adversary, I’d say not at all. They’re gonna come down to earth eventually. But they have a weird power over Dallas lately, so let’s just hope this matchup never happens. (For experimental sake; not because I think Dallas can’t win over a seven-game series.)
Vegas
The defending Cup champs were the best team to start the season and since then have hit a few road blocks, losing three of their last five. As Dom famously documented, the Knights were historically lucky last season. But this season is showing how overperforming expectations is not the same as performing poorly when the averages hit. Vegas is not a team built to dominate consistently, but they are a team built to win the three-zone battle from shift to shift.
How much should Dallas worry? Vegas is still a handful for Dallas. They play an intelligent game while being able to to match Dallas’ physicality. Eichel is one of the few centers who can beat Miro Heiskanen in a heads-up match, and while their depth isn't known for their point production, boy can they destroy a cycle. Dallas will have to figure out how to fight them on a different axis if these two meet again. Maybe Duchene will be enough. (I’m convinced he will be.)
I think the biggest worry is that Vegas will get serious at the deadline, like they always do. Will Nill beat them in the arms race? It’s hard to imagine the Stars being in on UFA Chris Tanev given how problematic his cap is ($4.5 million). Given what happened with Colin Miller, Nill may have the stomach to attach Jani Hakanpaa to the deal, but if you’re Calgary, and you’re gonna have a ton of suitors, that deal better have a lot more than just another UFA defender. All the same, there’s a good chance Vegas will be the better team on paper come the deadline. The Stars just have to trust that they got their work done in July and dance with what they brought.
L.A.
I know I can drill you with the “I told you so” a little too much, but once more: here were my words on October 9th in my preview of the West.
However, there’s always one team that upsets the established order. I’m not talking about some cheesy “anything can happen” type team. I’m talking a live dog. In this case, the LA Kings.
From then on I noted how they were the best defensive team in the league last year tied with Carolina per Micah Blake McCurdy’s model thanks to what I would argue is the best, pound for pound, top four in the league (no disrespect to the insanely underrated Jordan Spence). How are they looking this year?
Like the best defensive team in the league — again. At 57 percent expected goal share, they are the eight-best shot quality differential team in the analytics era (2007). A lot of that is fueled by their shift-to-shift offense, believe it or not. This team is for real.
How much should Dallas be worried? The Kings are like a better version of the Knights in some ways. They have better blueline depth and more standalone firepower. Their problem is that I’m not sure how much you can trust Cam Talbot right now. Pheonix Copley has been horrendous. For years they’ve been able to play above some wretched goaltending so bad goaltending won’t sink them, but it may be the deciding factor in the long run, like it was in those Edmonton series’s’s’. This is where drafting your starter like Nill did with Jake Oettinger comes in handy.
Edmonton
They’re a laughing stock now, and to be sure, some of that is justified. The Jack Campbell situation is why “analytics” should be mandatory for decisions like this. You don’t make decisions on a spreadsheet, but you could damn sure use one if you’re gonna do something mandatory, like I don’t know — f$@king homework. In Campbell’s final stint with LA, and initial stint with Toronto, he saved seven goals below expected. He was the David Clarkson contract of goalies, but Ken Holland went with his Eye Test (“he looked good last time I saw him!”) and now they’re paying the price.
Having said all that, they’ll dig their way out eventually. It’s true that Connor McDavid’s injury is hurting his speed. We even have evidence of that via NHL’s new analytics. So this isn’t a team that can just rely on McDavid. But they are a better squad than their record would indicate, even if they’re being donks about where to put Connor Brown.
How much should Dallas be worried? If Edmonton makes the playoff cut, they’re gonna get in the way teams like Florida and Montreal did. Stars fans should absolutely be worried that this is their first matchup. Do I think the Oilers are better? F’ no. However, if you believe that teams benefit by gradually being forced to play their best — the way a team like Dallas started out with Minnesota last year — then this should be nightmare fuel less for the prospect of Dallas actually losing a series to Edmonton and more for how motivated they’d be for finally punching their ticket.
Boston’s first round series versus Florida is the cautionary tale everyone remembers, but it wasn’t the first and it won’t be the first. For old school fans like me, you also know the history. Edmonton has never been an easy playoff matchup. Even when Dallas won a Cup, and the Oilers were wild cards, they brought the pain. Just saying.
Stack Notes
And with that, hope you enjoyed! I apologize for setting up a mailbag the other day on Twitter and then just ditching it completely. I can’t remember what happened, but it won’t happen again. And just want to thank everyone for their support.
David, assuming that Tanev is to rich for the Stars to pursue, Do you see another Dman that might be affordable that the Stars could pursue that would give them a little extra punch?