Stray Observations: Dallas gives up four straight in the third period, loses 6-4 to Carolina

Game 20 was a doozy for all the wrong reasons.

What?!

That was my initial reaction early on in this bizarro game, and it was the reaction I was left with.

It’s hard to react rationally to games like this. A 6-4 loss is bad, but timing warps all things. A 6-4 loss where Dallas had a massive power play advantage, allowed one official shorthanded goal, and another at the tailend of a power play — plus four goals were scored in the third??? Scorch the earth, they will say.

I’m not with that storyline. For one, Dallas’ first 40 minutes were fantastic. Granted, it was a little (okay, a lot) boring. But boring can win, and for the large majority of the game, the Stars were locking down an elite team; easily the best possession group in all of hockey.

No, seriously. Dallas had a massive advantage in shot quality.

But ultimately, two things can be true at once: Dallas performed well. And Dallas performed poorly.

They performed well from shift to shift, but they lost their heads on special teams, making a strong argument for squads being able to opt out of the power play. Jake Oettinger might like a few goals back, but credit where credit is due — the Hurricanes are elite, and they found ways to do elite things when it mattered most. If you don’t like this take, I ask you this: who’s to blame?

And yes, we’ll get to the problems in a bit. Are there any silver linings? Let’s find out in the strays.

The Seguin Line

I keep thinking the Seguin line will regress, or even just have a bad game, but instead they keep chugging along like some sort of puck handling, smooth skating leviathan. I still don’t feel like they have a strict chemistry in the traditional sense. Instead they’re all just kind of really good on their own, they don’t get in each other’s way, and it creates a victory green tide opponents can’t stop. Unlike last year, they have great underlying numbers too. The fact that three players who began the year with mild expectations are doing so well, and doing it sustainably is a major feather in Dallas’ cap.

Harley: back to formula

It was good to see Harley scoring goals like last year again. It was a ghastly defensive breakdown on Carolina’s part, but such a great shot by Harley. As I wrote last week for D Magazine, Harley’s been good. Sure he hasn’t wowed with production, but as with the Heiskanen’s offense debate, it’s important to explore our expectations of defensemen production, especially when their production doesn’t actively improve scoring the way he assume.

Counterpoint: boy is it a nice luxury however, as Shayne Gostisbehere tallied two points. What Dallas would give to have production from their bottom pair. Oh look: one might be available!¹

A power play in the abyss

A Discord user joked that Dallas’ problem is that they needed to stop drawing penalties.

As someone who feels like the power play will naturally bounce back in mundane ways, there’s no arguing against the exotic ways in which they’ve committed unforced errors. Heiskanen scoring a goal will take the heat off him for quarterbacking the power play, but I would very much like to either a) see Harley man the top unit for a few games or b) see Dallas go with five forwards: Logan Stankoven, Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene, and Wyatt Johnston.

Wait, is that the right move? This is where the pressure on Steve Spott isn’t altogether fair. Three of those forwards aren’t even top three in team scoring. Maybe the answer is to just give the man advantage to the Seguin line and rotate two random players with hot hands. Hopefully this thought experiment illustrates part of the problem with the power play: the top forwards haven’t been good enough in terms of production, which leaves Spott in a tough—yea yea.

No, I don’t believe that Spott is without blame. His playoff resume alone warrants closer inspection. But Spott’s power plays weren’t a problem (again, regular season only) in the previous two seasons. Neither were Robertson, Hintz, and Johnston. Just saying: the connection is real, and I think this explanatory power is undersold.

I know I made a big deal before the beginning of the season about doing a tracking project for the power play. No, there aren’t enough games to analyze because I’ve been extremely lazy, but I promise we’ll be digging deep soon enough. Again, the power play has been awful, and there’s no denying that. But to me it reads like a perfect storm of problems rather than any one player or coach being the single reason for blame.

Random stray: Johnston is tough

I loved seeing Johnston get right back up after this perfectly legal hit by Slavin. Granted, we’re at the point where we can start asking questions about Johnston being more than tough, but still—silver linings.

The Carolina perspective

I don’t think the Hurricanes really have to worry. Granted, yes, they have to worry about losing their two starters, Frederik Andersen (currently undergoing knee surgery) and Pyotr Kochetkov, but at least it’s an injury problem they have to deal with early in the season. Spencer Martin didn’t look all that great; in fact, I thought he looked actively bad, getting caught out of his net and the crease area far too often. He had some solid moments too, but Carolina is one of the few teams who can make average goalies look like Vezina winners. And in the end, he had the last laugh.

Programming note

No paid posts this week. For paid subscribers, I know that sucks. But it was the only gift I could think for the holiday week. So yes, tomorrow I have a prospect report for subscribers of all stripes. Many thanks to everyone who remains!

1. This obviously won’t happen, and the asking price for the sixth overall pick from 2022 will be fascinating, but who doesn’t love theorycrafting?