Stray Observations: Dallas splits the weekend versus Detroit and Colorado

The best of times. The worst of times. Just not for the power play.

For a team that struggled this weekend, Dallas is awfully close to the top spot. They’re above a Minnesota team that will likely hit a dramatic decline with all their injuries, and within-ish striking distance of Winnipeg.

Rick Dhaliwal, who’s plugged into the Canucks and has his own show, mentioned that he believes/suspects that the Stars are in on J.T. Miller. New York has been the frontrunner by all accounts. According to Elliotte Friedman, a deal even fell through, even imminent enough to potentially stop Miller from playing the other night versus Edmonton.

We’ll get to the strays in a bit. But I want to live in this point just a bit, because I get the impression that fans would hate this trade. He’s signed until he’s 37. Eight million is a lot. I don’t like him. Locker room cancer. Not that good. I have my own opinions about Miller. And I have strong opinions about what moves like these represent.

But here’s the thing: Miller is an upgrade over Tyler Seguin. Not only is he an upgrade, over the last three seasons and counting, Miller would actually lead Dallas in points over that stretch. Yes, over Jason Robertson. So the following question is not a ‘gotcha.’ It’s not even directed at everyone. This question is for people who think Dallas needs to push their chips in, this year. If you believe that, why would you object to Miller, assuming the cost doesn’t involve a essential piece to the current roster?

By all accounts, Jim Nill will wait until after the 4 Nations Face-Off to make a crucial move. And that’s fine. This is definitely the year for the floodgates to abruptly open given the status of the East. Teams that you assumed were shoe-ins, like Boston and New York, are not only out of the picture, but don’t outline like teams getting unlucky. Meanwhile, teams you assumed would still be tanking, like Ottawa and Columbus, are not only in the thick of it, but currently in playoff spots with an even wider gap in goal differential.

When you consider what Dallas has accomplished amidst injuries, slow starts, and a power play that is still very not good, where they are is actually quite impressive, even if outcomes should not in any way negate their flaws. But it does put pressure on Dallas to make the move; not just a good move, or a couple of moves to improve the margins—no, the one trade to rule them all.

Dallas vs. Detroit

On a back-to-back, you need your young legs, and the young players came through. Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque, Matěj Blümel, and Justin Hryckowian all got on the scoreboard in one way or the other. It was a game that kind of felt like going through the motions. Two teams, fatigued, one very good team versus a very bad team, ended in that natural result.

Granted, the Red Wings have been better under Todd McLellan. But that’s because the biggest change has been on the power play. At even-strength, they’ve still been mediocre in terms of broad possession (16th in Corsi For percentage) and control of shot quality (23rd in expected goal percentage).

However, the biggest development is that we can safely say that Jason Robertson is, indeed, back. He has 14 points in the month of January, well over a point-per-game pace. And he looks good shift in, and shift out. Even without Roope Hintz, his line with Wyatt Johnston and Evgenii Dadonov displayed some decent chemistry, awkward as they are. I don’t want the cloud of J.T. Miller to hang over every post-game article. I’ve written a lot about him anyway. But what is it worth to give Robertson and Hintz somebody who can actively elevate them? Dadonov has been in great in proportion to cap and expectation. But he doesn’t belong on that top line. Envisioning what the return of Dallas’ top line could do for them is why Nill can’t miss. Because if he doesn’t, Dallas is a wagon again.

That’s not to gas Dallas up after last night’s win. The better team won, but I didn’t necessarily feel like the Stars played like the better team. The underlying numbers agree.

But important things are clicking for Dallas, and they’re doing it without a lot of key pieces.

Also, as I’ve made annoyingly clear, I haven’t liked the lines in Hintz’ absence, so I was happy to be modestly vindicated when DeBoer changed it up, and stacked the top six to look like a top six. It’s not about whether ‘I can do better.’ Rather, I like seeing developing players put into positions where they can better develop. Mavrik Bourque had earned a top six look along time ago, so watching him get bumped down with Hintz out seemed counterintuitive.

It’s easy to see how confusion can arise though. Logan Stankoven seems like such an obvious top six try out, and yet his struggles continued versus the Red Wings. Stankoven is crucial to elevating Dallas’ offense if he can bring back the player he was not just last season, but from the playoffs. One thing I feel like I’m noticing a lot is how easily the puck gets poked away, or how often he loses control. This wasn’t a frequent occurrence either last season, in the AHL, or in juniors for that matter. It really feels like a mental block for him. But he still does a lot of great work in transition, so this is by no means a broad assessment.

Dallas vs. Colorado

This game was plain old weird. The Stars had the advantage on the faceoff dots by a share of 64.2 percent. Yet they were outshot 36 to 29, which is simply proof that when it comes to analysis, a quick clip of a lost or won faceoff is not actually all that informative¹. Casey DeSmith played really well. But he still got burned. And the power play came alive with two goals!

Speaking of which, tomorrow is my film room analysis of the Miro Heiskanen-Jamie Benn connection. In case my thesis is not obvious, I don’t think they mesh well on the top power play unit. Interestingly enough, even with three goals scored from the top unit in their last two games, the two only factored into the boxscore once; a Heiskanen secondary assist.

But we’ll talk more about that tomorrow. For now, my only takeaway from that Colorado game is that the Matt Dumba experiment is over.

At $3.75 million AVV until next year, Dallas will be lucky to find a buyer next season. He’ll be impossible to unload before the deadline without attaching a premium asset to do so. I know some people might find this to be dramatic. Well, that’s what Brenden Smith is for. And Lian Bichsel for that matter.

The problem is not that Dumba is replaceable. The problem is that his contract is not replaceable. Or the fact that he’s an active member of the roster. Dumba’s very presence makes it impossible for Dallas to shop for defensive depth, for example. And no, I’m not saying Dallas needs two defenders at the deadline, nor do I consider that an intelligent option. But being prevented from doing anything in principle because a $3.75 million player has been passed up by one aging veteran and one developing prospect is not a good thing. His movement on Colorado’s fifth goal may have been the worst he’s ever been on a play all season.

The silver lining is that Dallas will very likely go into the playoffs with Heiskanen, Lindell, Harley, Lyubushkin, Bichsel, and a veteran deadline addition², which sounds like a very good blueline.

1. Again, with the plug of my article on faceoffs for those who haven’t read it.

2. Pure speculation, but I have to believe that knowing Nils Lundkvist will be the odd man out for any defensive addition, he’ll have to be part of a package going back.