Stray Observations: Vegas Draws First Blood to Beat Dallas in a WC Finals Rematch
Game 2. Loss 1.
Of course this is how it had to happen. The season started damn-near a week ago, and so naturally, it had to be one of those classic Up All Night Pacific games. I suppose I can’t complain. NHL hockey is back, which means there’s always something to watch, which means there’s always something to talk about, which means there’s always something to write about.
Going into the game, the Stars were the heavy favorite. Vegas already had three games in the books, and undefeated, but they also hadn’t played anyone. Their wins were over Anaheim, Seattle, and San Jose; not exactly a murderers row. Scoring four goals in each content, the goals were bound to come down. Unfortunately for Dallas, that’s exactly what happened, and yet they still lost.
Evolving-Hockey game Dallas a 57 percent chance of winning. In the cap era, that’s as dominant as it gets.
Did it play out that way? Not at all.
Through the first period, I thought Vegas kind of dominated. They just looked smoother, more assured, and completely hangover free. Granted, it’s also their fourth game of the season while Dallas has had a five-day layoff, but I hate excuses like this; the Knights were also missing literally half their blueline with Pietrangelo, Martinez, and Whitecloud all out.
The Knights were much better in the neutral zone, forced several errors, and attacked the center of the ice. Jack Eichel continues to look like the player who worked hard to give Connor McDavid a run for his money during that 2015 draft. Granted, nobody believed it but Buffalo and Eichel himself, but while he’s clearly the inferior player, his defensive development (he punished Dallas on the penalty kill on a couple of plays) and a Stanley Cup win are anything but a “consolation” prize.
The second period delivered some of the bloodshed we expected with Jamie Benn and Nic Hague dropping the gloves. I don’t know they did but I remember Hague pissing everyone off in the Western Conference Finals.
Good fight for Benn, who seemed disinterested versus Pat Maroon in the preseason. Tyler Seguin and Craig Smith connected to take the lead, but the one-goal lead wasn’t the story of the second. It was the animosity. Jason Robertson threw a brilliant reverse hit on Brayden McNabb. Then Mark Stone took a run at Robertson. Tyler Seguin shouldered some poor sapper off his feet. The middle stanza reads like a boxing play-by-play. And just like in a fight, Vegas scored, and then another fight erupted; this time between Mason Marchment and Ben Hutton.
Jake Oettinger was the story of the night through two periods, and one of the reasons why Vegas didn’t capitalize on a late-period 5-on-3. The final stanza felt a little perfunctory by comparison. Joe Pavelski scored off a fortunate bounce, and yes, I know it was off a faceoff. I think any careful reading of that piece knows that Pavelski’s goal did not contradict the point of that discussion. After all, it wasn’t a faceoff win that allowed Vegas to tie it late in the third.
Overtime felt like the same story of regulation, Vegas dominating stretches, while Dallas camped out behind Oettinger to wait a little too patiently for counter strikes. It’s been a bumpy road for the Stars, who still don’t seem to have any wind at their sails (beyond Oettinger). Again, the overtime discussion doesn’t interest me. It’s chaos; not an interplay of systems and matchups.
All in all, the Stars have collected points in their first two games, only losing to the Cup Champions. It’s not a bad start by any means. But there’s more going on.
Stray Observations
A quick word about Vegas
I didn’t really think of Vegas as the power in the West. Their Cup run was famously defined by an unprecedented amount of luck (that’s different from calling them undeserving), and they’re just shy of being driven by a handful of stars. However, I’m starting to re-think that position. I said before on Dimitri’s podcast, many teams are designed one way, but operate another way. There’s only one team I traditionally think about when I think about a team whose system operates exactly as intended, and that’s Carolina. Vegas might be the other one.
Jake Oettinger is in Calgary Mode
Oettinger was an absolute unit in net. Nobody questions whether Oettinger is good. The mission is to prove he’s great. So far he’s playing the part, and silencing the (playoff) critics.
Roope Hintz back from injury
Hintz didn’t look super noticeable, which is likely due to him shaking off rust. However, he made some strong defensive plays, especially on the penalty kill. To me the biggest thing about Tuesday night is that the more likely explanation is that Vegas has a lot of experiencing playing that top line, and they simply know how to contain them better than anyone.
Ty Dellandrea on thin ice
I like Dellandrea. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be an everyday NHLer on this team. But he’s gotta know that with Sam Steel just sitting there in the pressbox — a player DeBoer likes — those needless penalties are gonna catch up to him.
E Tu, Duchene?
Except for a few nifty dangles and a sweet sweet shootout goal, I didn’t notice Duchene. I take that back; I did notice Duchene. Just not in very positive ways. The penalties and the fights (both involving combatants from the middle six) threw off the lines, to be fair. I’m not singling out Duchene because I feel like I need to hit a negativity quota, but because I said before the season: it’ll be interesting to see how fans respond to Duchene when he’s not scoring because he doesn’t play the kind of game that stands out when he’s not producing.
Wyatt Johnston, still dangerous
Against another goalie, Johnston might have had a pair of goals. There are a lot of things to watch as Johnston develops, but the funny thing that seems to be happening is that he’s developing into something more specialized — a pure shooter. That’s not to say he’s developing less dimensions. It’s to say that he might be strengthening a thing he’s already really good at. His focus on taking the shot, and being able to generate them with such high velocity might have us re-thinking the narrative (in a good way).
Lindell, still questionable
I’ve been questioning Esa Lindell’s true value ever since 2017, when I felt like people were mistaking their chemistry for symmetry. And we’ve had recent discussions here at this very Stack, including for the season preview. It looks like that conversation is finally making its way into the national conversation. I think the real concern is that Lindell somehow only valuable if his partner is dominant. You don’t think have to think too hard to realize why that’s so concerning.
Anaheim next
There’s no reason why the Stars shouldn’t smash Anaheim. However, things have been weird this season, as the Ducks already have a win over Carolina. The only thing I’ll say is that Anaheim isn’t like Chicago, who might be lowkey dangerous thanks to so many wild cards between Bedard, Reichel, and Korchinski. The Ducks are still awful, Dallas is due for some goal regression, and Thursday should be a bloodletting.
A good question is if either Seguin or Duchene will distinguish themselves... and bring the other along for the ride... Seguin had a nice pass, but lost high slot responsibility on their first goal (where was he going anyway?). My bet is on Duchene, who so far looks more dangerous to me, and his shot just seems quicker/harder than Seguins.
Lindell is the new conundrum player to me... he used to be very very consistent. Either he’s gotten slower (perhaps he’s blocked too many shots???) or the game has seemingly passed him by (5 on 5 anyway). He’s still extremely effective short handed! It’s not a partner thing, it’s his own coverages, responsibilities, and clears that he slips up on vs. earlier Lindell.
Respectfully, we need to give more much more credit to Vegas’s skill and game... they play their system very well, such that their replacements fit right in... they will be in the top 5-6 teams level in the west all season. Luck is a tricky concept... most of the time hard work just pays off, and hate them as we all do, we need to admit, they work their asses off.
I seriously think Craig Smith showed that he's the answer to the Seguin/Duchene riddle. No Cap, Full Stop, God Honest Truth, pick your idiom. Dude proved a point. (and though he didn't get an apple, Duchene was noticeable in that scoring sequence.)
Take the three scoring lines Dallas has so far, and wake up the offense in Anaheim.
Robo-Hintz(A)-Pavs(G)
Smith(G)-Duchene/Seguin(A)
Benn(G)-Johnston(A)-Dellandrea(A)
Marchment-Faksa-Dadanov (Czeching Line Redoux)