Tier-ranking the excuses for Dallas' struggles thus far, from worst to best

Let's settle several debates.

In many ways, it’s easy to see why the discourse is so heated. The Stars made back-to-back Conference Finals. Now 35 games into the season, they’re only in a second wild card spot, neck and neck with Vancouver. And we’re still talking about the same problems we’ve been talking about since the season began — even after a blowout 5-1 win over Chicago last night.

It’s worth lingering on that question and pealing back each layer. On the whole, I do think Dallas is a good team. However, maybe the real question is whether they’re a good team in an improved division (?). Or maybe not. Maybe the real question is whether or not good teams can falter, and perhaps even fail (?).

You’d think a 5-1 victory would leave us insights about where this team is headed, but after registering only one high danger shot on 15 minutes of power play time, I’m not ready to buy this. But I also don’t buy a lot of where the blame is sometimes directed. Joe Pavelski, Jim Nill’s offseason, Matt Dumba, the power play, etc. We’ll go through them all.

But before we do, let’s focus on something positive: new subscribers. As much as we want answers, and accountability for when things go wrong, let’s respect that we’re all in different paths in our hockey journey. Some are new, some are old, some want to understand hockey better while others just want to enjoy the sport. It’s all good here. My mission here is to learn new things with other Stars fans on their journey. Maybe today will be that day for fans, whether you’re a believer or a doomer.

If you’re not sure what to expect, check the About page (still working on the link page for all paid articles but everything’s technically up). Tomorrow we’ll talk about the World Juniors, as Dallas has two representatives, along with the usual prospect talk. Now back to our regularly-scheduled rambling.

Dallas misses Joe Pavelski

Pavelski had as many playoff points last season as Ryan Suter, having been outscored by Sam Steel and Esa Lindell. While he had a productive regular season, it was extremely clear that father time had caught up, and collected that age debt. Pavelski could barely put together a clean pass when all was said and done. If he really wanted, he probably could have earned himself a nice paycheck after a 60-point campaign. Granted, there are so many other reasons to do things beyond money, so I don’t want to slight other motives Pavelski had for retiring. But I suspect he felt that decline in his bones, and his shift-to-shift value agreed.

Click here for a casual fan’s guide to sG.

Honestly, I don’t feel like wasting time talking about his locker room leadership. It’s not that I consider it unimportant; it’s that we don’t know what Pavelski’s leadership was worth to the performance of the team. How do you decide which categories Pavelski’s leadership was responsible for versus those that weren’t? If Pavelski deserves credit for Dallas scoring more goals in the third period (where they ranked eighth), then why not credit him for Dallas allowing goals against early (where they ranked 13th)?¹ Beyond that, it implicates the rest of Dallas’ on-ice leadership as defective. Maybe it’s true. But who am I to say? And what leadership is more critical than the leadership of those who build and coach the team? Just saying. That’s a lot of cans, and a lot of worms to open up just for one player’s absence.

However, a more important reason is this: Dallas had ample time to prepare for Pavelski’s loss between an offseason, trade, and personal journeys to figure out how the leadership would change without him. I have no doubt there is a tangible effect to Pavelski’s loss. But his absence was inevitable. Dallas’ current problems should not be.

Excuse Rank: F Tier

Tyler Seguin injury

Has Seguin’s injury affected Dallas’ offense? Yes. Was Seguin having a career year? You betcha. Did Washington make the same excuse when Alex Ovechkin, who actually has more points in less games than Seguin, got injured? Nope. They went 10-5-1 without Ovechkin while Dallas has gone 6-5-1. In fact, forget about Washington. Let’s look at a breakdown of each team’s list of injuries, prioritized by cap.

Data and visual courtesy of NHL Injury Viz.

A lot of teams have had it worse, and rank higher. Also, let’s be real: nobody would have ranked Seguin as one of Dallas’ top forwards before this season started. Seguin’s absence has some explanatory power, but many non-Seguin forwards struggled even when he was in the lineup.

Excuse Rank: D Tier

It’s all Jake Oettinger’s fault

In my analysis of Oettinger with Ralph Strangis, I was clear: Oettinger is very good, but not great. I didn’t even think² he deserved Jeremy Swayman money (ironic given their current trajectories, I know). Last season’s report card of him wasn’t super positive and that’s because Oettinger is firmly in the Widely Varying Degrees of Good camp, for me.

But this year, he is bailing out the Stars defense. Especially on the penalty kill.

Click here for a casual fan’s guide to Evolving-Hockey’s goalie charts.

Understanding the difference between goaltending (goals allowed) and team defense (shot quality allowed) is also key to understanding why Oettinger is not to blame. I’m leaving this out of the F Tier because while Oettinger has been better than the defense in front of him, I wouldn’t say it’s a great season either. Having allowed a little over two goals saved above expected, that’s good for top 25, but also below his own backup. He’s actively helping the Stars win games, but by no means a brick wall.

Excuse Rank: D Tier

Jim Nill’s offseason

Nill had some big hits (Casey DeSmith and Matt Duchene), a big miss (Matt Dumba), and something in between (Ilya Lyubushkin and Colin Blackwell). Dallas needed to replace Joe Pavelski, Scott Wedgewood, and Chris Tanev. In response, he stole everything he could from the nearby pulgas³. At the time, I gave him a C+ for his offseason work, and I think that more or less holds true. I’ve had good things to say about Nill’s offseason overall, but I also think there are problems somewhat beyond his control that are more important. Speaking of…

Excuse Rank: C Tier

The blueline

Now we’re getting a little warmer IMO. “But Dallas is first in goals against.” Again, goaltending and team defense are not the same thing. It’s one of the reasons why Jake Oettinger deserves so much credit: Dallas is allowing a high amount of shot quality, and Oettinger, to his credit, is making the ‘team defense’ look far better than it has any right to be. In fact, Dallas’ shot quality allowed is downright substandard.

Click here for a casual fan’s guide to JFresh Hockey Cards.

There is a plot twist, however. In cases like this, I like to check other models. Oddly enough, MoneyPuck (8th) and HockeyViz find (13th) rank Dallas more favorably. However, Patrick Bacon’s model doesn’t, and neither does Evolving-Hockey, where they rank 17th. I don’t want to get lost in the weeds though. Differences or not, there is a noticeable discrepancy in the goals Dallas is allowing versus the shot quality they’re allowing. Here’s one more ‘Oettinger > Dallas defense ’ chart just to drive the point home, further. (Higher to the right, the heavier the goalie’s workload; higher in general, the better their work.)

The blueline lacks territorial ability. Symmetry is not efficiency. Pairing some shutdown guys with some puck movers can and often does work, but if they’re complete opposite ends of the spectrum — quality puck movers who can transition versus plodding shutdown defenders who can’t even retrieve the puck in the defensive zone — then you end up with Dallas’ problem. It’s why Tanev was so perfect. He was a shutdown defender, but he could move the puck up ice with control. It doesn’t help that neither Heiskanen nor Harley, despite their offensive skills, have made much impact on the scoreboard. Both are on pace for 37, and 36 points, respectively. That is extremely significant. In fact, the last time Dallas had a d-core without a defender to break — or be on pace to break — the 40-point barrier was 2011-2012, when their most productive blueliners were Alex Goligoski (30), followed by Trevor Daley (25). Dallas missed the playoffs that year.

Excuse Rank: B Tier

Jason Robertson’s struggles

I won’t say too much here. Robertson is trying his best. It’s safe to say the surgery on his foot to remove a cyst has handicapped him in a major way. As a result, his impact on goal-scoring is not just a career low, but replacement level.

Click here for a casual fan’s guide to Goals Above Replacement.

There’s no denying the impact. Having your top scorer go from scoring every other game statistically, to scoring once every five games, is massive. If winning means your best players have to be your best players, then Robertson’s struggling season is Dallas’ struggling season.

Excuse Rank: A Tier

Steve Spott, Pete DeBoer, and the power play

Fans don’t like hearing how the Stars are fifth in expected goals-for per 60. What matters to them is Dallas’ rank, and conversion. However, genuine and true analysis shouldn’t come down to how you feel about an assistant coach. It should be about what’s true. Is it true that Dallas’ power play is bad, or unlucky? If some mixture, then what level? For new subscribers, or anyone unfamiliar with my previous work, trust me when I say I’m not interested in carrying anyone’s water. I didn’t for Rick Bowness, and I won’t for this coaching staff when it comes to the PP.

If I’m defending the coaching staff, then why do I rank this “excuse” so high? Simple: they’re in charge of the power play, and it’s not getting it done. The game in Chicago was yet another example as they registered only one high danger chance in 15 minutes of PP time (Jamie Benn even drew back onto the top unit). There’s another piece to this, though, and it goes back to the question in the preamble. Can good teams fail? Not oddly enough, this was the case with the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2021-2022 season, also led by DeBoer and Spott. Their goal differential that year was sixth best in the Western Conference at +18, above two teams who made the cut: the Nashville Predators (+14), and the Dallas Stars (-8). They posted a lot of good underlying numbers, like the Stars this season. That Vegas team deserved better, but they had two problems that sunk them, and it’ll sound eerily familiar to fans of the team they’re now coaching: injuries, and a weak power play (Vegas’ PP ranked 25th that season).

Excuse Rank: A Tier

The youth movement, or lackthereof

This one will be unfair, but let’s go there. Young players, not yet being fully developed, will naturally ebb and flow more radically. It’s just the nature of the game. So what follows is not any sort of judgment of who these players will be, or even of who they are now. I’ve always been, and will always be more sympathetic towards young players developing in a league that thumbs its nose at the very concept. But this is the gamble the Dallas organization made when it decided to protect its assets at all costs. This is the gamble Nill has made, in keeping as many picks as possible while trying to contend now. For years we’ve given credit to Dallas’ scouts for being ahead of the curve. And they deserve all of it. 35 games into the new year, I’m not about to throw out seven years of great work.

However, if we’re trying to figure out what’s hurting this Dallas team, then the youth movement is fair game. In the context of wins and losses, their expectations are no different than they are for players like Robertson and Hintz. Right now, Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven are struggling. Stankoven was primed to take the Pavelski spot but right now, he’s on pace for 44 points while Johnston is on pace for 55. That’s not the biggest dip or anything, but their underlying numbers are what worries me. Their shift-to-shift performance is really weak. In isolation, Stankoven looks a lot better, especially where shot attempts relative to the team is concerned.

Click here for a casual fan’s guide to Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus.

But in literally every meaningful category — observed goals, expected goals, possession for, possession against, etc — they’re casting small shadows. Compare their performances to last season, and it’s night versus day.

Again, I fully recognize that this is unfair to players like Johnston and Stankoven. But Johnston and Stankoven weren’t just prospects punching above their weight. They weren’t even secondary scoring. They were a primary source of Dallas’ new identity. Isn’t this precisely what has fueled Dallas’ success, and the blueprint for how to do things differently? If that’s true then it should cut both ways. Their ebbs instead of flows mirrors what is going on in Buffalo, where players like Dylan Cozens, and Owen Power have taken steps back. Similar things could be said about Thomas Harley, and to a lesser degree, Mavrik Bourque. Again, this is not an assessment of who these players will be. It’s an assessment of what their struggles mean to Dallas’ struggles. And in that respect, they’re intimately linked.

Rank: S Tier

One of the reasons why I’m more optimistic than most is because I believe the best excuses also have some course correction embedded in them. I don’t believe that players like Johnston, Stankoven, Harley, and Bourque have suddenly taken off their masks to reveal Alex Chiasson, Devin Shore, Julius Honka, and Brett Ritchie. Their power play is a problem, but their overall shot quality is good enough that I also think they’ll accidentally bounce back. I also think Robertson is nowhere near this poor, even in his injured state.

However, optimism and belief are only friends, not family (sorry Dominic Toretto). The team needs a lot of work. While the Stars may be due for regression, a lot of fundamental issues remain. Between the power play, team defense, and Seguin’s injury, these absences will likely linger — at worst. And that’s why I often propose the LTIR discussion like a trick question without meaning to: is this year’s roster the one to spend nine million over the cap on, and is this year’s market the one to exploit that? Depends on which excuses are actually reasons, and which reasons are actually excuses. Figure that out, and perhaps Dallas will figure out its struggles.

1. For those wondering, Dallas is 23rd in Period 1 GF this year, and 8th in Period 1 GA.

2. This was written right before Oettinger signed his extension, but my analysis of Oettinger versus Swayman more or less reveals my conclusions.

3. Flea market.